Johnson Controls (JCI) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.22), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, JCI sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 14, 2026 (±3 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.22in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.22 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.48% | -0.13pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.30% | +0.73pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 21 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±3 days.
| Dividend | $0.40 |
| Per-event yield | 0.31% |
| Annualized yield | 1.10% |
| Previously paid | Mar 16, 2026 ($0.40) |
| Last record date | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 10, 2026 |
JCI Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Johnson Controls (JCI). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.40 | 1.12% | $130.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.34% | +2.70% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | 0.37% | $119.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.30% | +1.51% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.92% | $108.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.78% | -0.12% | |
| Q2 | $0.37 | -0.28% | $102.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.98% | +3.66% | |
| Q1 | $0.37 | 1.28% | $82.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.43% | -2.72% | |
| Q4 | $0.37 | -0.99% | $80.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.11% | -1.66% | |
| Q3 | $0.37 | -0.01% | $75.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.24% | +1.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.37 | 0.16% | $68.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.93% | -3.34% | |
| Q1 | $0.37 | -0.46% | $64.78 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.98% | +1.11% | |
| Q4 | $0.37 | -1.16% | $54.10 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.49% | +5.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.37 | -0.72% | $55.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.55% | -2.97% | |
| Q2 | $0.37 | 0.00% | $65.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.00% | +1.10% | |
| Q1 | $0.36 | -1.82% | $59.45 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.32% | -1.45% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -1.45% | $64.82 | 9 | no | yes | -2.88% | -0.57% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | -1.48% | $51.24 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.72% | -3.26% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -1.01% | $47.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.20% | +3.44% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | -0.59% | $64.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.63% | +2.65% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | -0.30% | $79.10 | 6 | no | yes | -5.99% | +1.24% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | -0.88% | $74.08 | 21 | no | yes | -8.48% | -6.47% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | -1.06% | $65.93 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.37% | +2.17% |
- +2.70%
- +1.51%
- -0.12%
- +3.66%
- -2.72%
- -1.66%
- +1.84%
- -3.34%
- +1.11%
- +5.56%
- -2.97%
- +1.10%
- -1.45%
- -0.57%
- -3.26%
- +3.44%
- +2.65%
- +1.24%
- -6.47%
- +2.17%
JCI Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
JCI Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with JCI's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $80.00
- After-tax dividend
- $52.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$26.03
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$25.97
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.10%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~5.0%
JCI Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical JCI ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · JCI (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.41% | |
| -6.47% | |
| +1.24% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.68% | |
| -0.57% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.31% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.