JCI dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Johnson Controls (JCI) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.21), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, JCI sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 14, 2026 (±3 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.21
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.21 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.36% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.64% | +1.30pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 21 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±3 days.
Dividend
$0.40
Per-event yield
0.28%
Annualized yield
1.10%
Previously paid
Jun 15, 2026 ($0.40)
Last record date
Jun 15, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 10, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Johnson Controls (JCI). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.40 | 1.87% | $144.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.70% | -2.26% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | 1.12% | $130.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.34% | +2.70% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | 0.37% | $119.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.30% | +1.51% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.92% | $108.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.78% | -0.12% | |
| Q2 | $0.37 | -0.28% | $102.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.98% | +3.66% | |
| Q1 | $0.37 | 1.28% | $82.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.43% | -2.72% | |
| Q4 | $0.37 | -0.99% | $80.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.11% | -1.66% | |
| Q3 | $0.37 | -0.01% | $75.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.24% | +1.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.37 | 0.16% | $68.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.93% | -3.34% | |
| Q1 | $0.37 | -0.46% | $64.78 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.98% | +1.11% | |
| Q4 | $0.37 | -1.16% | $54.10 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.49% | +5.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.37 | -0.72% | $55.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.55% | -2.97% | |
| Q2 | $0.37 | 0.00% | $65.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.00% | +1.10% | |
| Q1 | $0.36 | -1.82% | $59.45 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.32% | -1.45% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -1.45% | $64.82 | 9 | no | yes | -2.88% | -0.57% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | -1.48% | $51.24 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.72% | -3.26% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -1.01% | $47.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.20% | +3.44% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | -0.59% | $64.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.63% | +2.65% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | -0.30% | $79.10 | 6 | no | yes | -5.99% | +1.24% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | -0.88% | $74.08 | 21 | no | yes | -8.48% | -6.47% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with JCI's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical JCI ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.14%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+2.84%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+107.02%
Best event
+1.24%
Worst event
-6.47%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · JCI (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -6.47% | |
| +1.24% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.68% | |
| -0.57% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.28% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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