Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what JCI is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$336.20
Method range
$22.50 – $336.20
median $143.51
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $336.20 | +135.95% |
| Exit multiple | $129.68 | -8.99% |
| Analyst target | $157.33 | +10.41% |
| Graham number | $22.50 | -84.21% |
- Forward DCF$336.20
- Exit multiple$129.68
- Analyst target$157.33
- Graham number$22.50
Stock price
$142.49
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.00
3Y FCF CAGR
-13.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$4.04
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
38.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -3,426.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-13.9%
Your model implies
38.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -14% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.3% | 34.7% | 33.9% | 33.1% | 32.2% | 31.2% |
| 10.3% | 37.2% | 36.5% | 35.8% | 35.0% | 34.2% |
| 11.3% | 39.6% | 39.0% | 38.3% | 37.6% | 36.9% |
| 12.3% | 41.9% | 41.3% | 40.7% | 40.1% | 39.5% |
| 13.3% | 44.1% | 43.6% | 43.1% | 42.5% | 41.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
1.72
Fair vs growth
Net debt
$10.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.32
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Johnson Controls (JCI) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks7.04% TTM
- Dividend Profile1.12% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History14 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.