Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what JCI is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$337.76
Method range
$22.50 – $337.76
median $122.97
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $337.76 | +135.12% |
| Exit multiple | $95.61 | -33.44% |
| Analyst target | $150.33 | +4.65% |
| Graham number | $22.50 | -84.34% |
- Forward DCF$337.76
- Exit multiple$95.61
- Analyst target$150.33
- Graham number$22.50
Stock price
$143.65
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.00
3Y FCF CAGR
-13.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$4.05
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
38.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -3447.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-13.9%
Your model implies
38.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -14% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | 34.7% | 33.9% | 33.1% | 32.2% | 31.2% |
| 10.2% | 37.2% | 36.6% | 35.8% | 35.0% | 34.2% |
| 11.2% | 39.7% | 39.0% | 38.4% | 37.7% | 36.9% |
| 12.2% | 42.0% | 41.4% | 40.8% | 40.2% | 39.5% |
| 13.2% | 44.2% | 43.7% | 43.1% | 42.6% | 42.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
1.72
Fair vs growth
Net debt
$10.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.34
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Johnson Controls (JCI) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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