Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what KDP is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$63.54
Method range
$9.11 – $63.54
median $42.11
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $63.54 | +108.11% |
| Exit multiple | $51.89 | +69.95% |
| Analyst target | $32.33 | +5.90% |
| Graham number | $9.11 | -70.15% |
- Forward DCF$63.54
- Exit multiple$51.89
- Analyst target$32.33
- Graham number$9.11
Stock price
$30.53
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.12
3Y FCF CAGR
-10.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$1.07
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
32.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -2756.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-10.1%
Your model implies
32.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -10% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 28.4% | 26.5% | 24.4% | 21.8% | 18.5% |
| 5.7% | 31.2% | 29.7% | 27.9% | 25.9% | 23.4% |
| 6.7% | 34.9% | 33.7% | 32.3% | 30.8% | 29.0% |
| 7.7% | 38.3% | 37.2% | 36.1% | 34.8% | 33.5% |
| 8.7% | 41.3% | 40.4% | 39.5% | 38.4% | 37.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$15.1B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.42
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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