Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MOS is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$31.17
Method range
$7.62 – $31.17
median $25.26
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $31.17 | +40.17% |
| Exit multiple | $7.62 | -65.73% |
| Analyst target | $28.00 | +25.90% |
| Graham number | $22.52 | +1.25% |
- Forward DCF$31.17
- Exit multiple$7.62
- Analyst target$28.00
- Graham number$22.52
Stock price
$22.24
EPS (TTM)
$2.32
5Y EPS CAGR
-0.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$31.17
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
-5.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 28.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
-0.6%
Your model implies
-5.1%
Analyst consensus for next year implies -64.9% — beyond the model's annualised scale. Consensus reflects a one-step EPS estimate vs TTM, not a multi-year CAGR.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | -7.9% | -8.6% | -9.4% | -10.3% | -11.4% |
| 7.5% | -5.9% | -6.5% | -7.1% | -7.8% | -8.6% |
| 8.5% | -4.1% | -4.6% | -5.1% | -5.7% | -6.3% |
| 9.5% | -2.4% | -2.8% | -3.3% | -3.7% | -4.3% |
| 10.5% | -0.8% | -1.2% | -1.6% | -2.0% | -2.4% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.03
Low vs growth
Net debt
$5.0B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.80
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Mosaic (MOS) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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