MRK dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Merck & Co. (MRK) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.38), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MRK sits roughly in line with the Healthcare sector benchmark of 100%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Sep 15, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.85.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.38
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.38 | +0.23 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.45% | -0.11pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.89% | +1.42pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 12 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$0.85
Per-event yield
0.71%
Annualized yield
2.66%
Previously paid
Jun 15, 2026 ($0.85)
Last record date
Jun 15, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 8, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Merck & Co. (MRK). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.85 | -0.29% | $119.05 | 6 | no | yes | -6.28% | +1.18% | |
| Q1 | $0.85 | -0.23% | $115.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.50% | +0.80% | |
| Q4 | $0.85 | -0.31% | $100.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.50% | +5.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.81 | -0.85% | $82.81 | 12 | no | yes | -6.32% | -1.93% | |
| Q2 | $0.81 | -1.02% | $81.71 | 11 | no | yes | -5.64% | -0.71% | |
| Q1 | $0.81 | -0.97% | $94.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.92% | -1.53% | |
| Q4 | $0.81 | -0.74% | $102.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.10% | -1.78% | |
| Q3 | $0.77 | -0.05% | $115.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.53% | +0.47% | |
| Q2 | $0.77 | -0.98% | $129.48 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.65% | +3.25% | |
| Q1 | $0.77 | -0.69% | $122.16 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.40% | +1.83% | |
| Q4 | $0.77 | -0.40% | $107.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.66% | +0.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.73 | -0.11% | $107.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.18% | -0.32% | |
| Q2 | $0.73 | -0.25% | $109.99 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.50% | +4.05% | |
| Q1 | $0.73 | -0.26% | $105.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.11% | +0.51% | |
| Q4 | $0.73 | -0.35% | $110.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.38% | +0.84% | |
| Q3 | $0.69 | 0.83% | $86.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.04% | -1.23% | |
| Q2 | $0.69 | -0.27% | $85.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.29% | +5.71% | |
| Q1 | $0.69 | -0.46% | $78.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.21% | +1.90% | |
| Q4 | $0.69 | -1.44% | $73.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.72% | +3.83% | |
| Q3 | $0.65 | -0.18% | $73.18 | 8 | no | yes | -3.13% | -0.77% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with MRK's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical MRK ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.49%
Win rate (20 trades)
85%
Cumulative P&L
+9.73%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+77.78%
Best event
+1.18%
Worst event
-1.93%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MRK (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -0.77% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.86% | |
| -0.71% | |
| -1.93% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +1.18% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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