Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MRK is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$530.33
Method range
$23.93 – $530.33
median $87.73
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $530.33 | +316.04% |
| Exit multiple | $39.13 | -69.30% |
| Analyst target | $136.33 | +6.95% |
| Graham number | $23.93 | -81.23% |
- Forward DCF$530.33
- Exit multiple$39.13
- Analyst target$136.33
- Graham number$23.93
Stock price
$127.47
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.18
3Y FCF CAGR
6.7%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$54.14
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
17.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -135.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
6.7%
Your model implies
17.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 7% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 17.4% | 15.7% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 8.5% |
| 5.0% | 17.4% | 15.7% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 8.5% |
| 5.7% | 20.0% | 18.6% | 17.1% | 15.3% | 13.1% |
| 6.7% | 23.4% | 22.3% | 21.0% | 19.7% | 18.1% |
| 7.7% | 26.4% | 25.4% | 24.4% | 23.3% | 22.1% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.07
Low vs growth
Net debt
$36B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.21
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Merck & Co. (MRK) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks2.00% TTM
- Dividend Profile2.64% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History7 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.