PEP dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
PepsiCo (PEP) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.49), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PEP sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Sep 4, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.48.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.49
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.49 | +0.12 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.63% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.05% | +0.94pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 29 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$1.48
Per-event yield
1.04%
Annualized yield
4.16%
Previously paid
Jun 5, 2026 ($1.48)
Last record date
Jun 5, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 30, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for PepsiCo (PEP). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.48 | -0.42% | $142.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.03% | +2.53% | |
| Q1 | $1.42 | -1.52% | $160.70 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.00% | +0.37% | |
| Q4 | $1.42 | -0.88% | $146.91 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.04% | +3.51% | |
| Q3 | $1.42 | -0.61% | $146.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.75% | -1.32% | |
| Q2 | $1.42 | -0.66% | $131.11 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.92% | +0.89% | |
| Q1 | $1.36 | -0.88% | $154.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.24% | -3.02% | |
| Q4 | $1.36 | -0.71% | $160.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.66% | -0.73% | |
| Q3 | $1.36 | -1.04% | $179.30 | 7 | no | yes | -2.98% | -0.33% | |
| Q2 | $1.36 | -0.98% | $173.20 | >30 | no | no | -6.73% | -4.64% | |
| Q1 | $1.27 | -0.49% | $167.03 | 13 | no | yes | -3.13% | -1.59% | |
| Q4 | $1.27 | -0.63% | $167.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.40% | +0.94% | |
| Q3 | $1.27 | -0.96% | $181.08 | 10 | no | yes | -4.20% | -1.96% | |
| Q2 | $1.27 | 0.04% | $182.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.66% | +0.56% | |
| Q1 | $1.15 | -0.48% | $171.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.90% | +0.95% | |
| Q4 | $1.15 | -0.02% | $185.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.60% | -0.31% | |
| Q3 | $1.15 | -0.78% | $172.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.02% | +1.22% | |
| Q2 | $1.15 | -0.52% | $166.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.99% | -1.54% | |
| Q1 | $1.08 | -0.33% | $164.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.78% | -5.43% | |
| Q4 | $1.08 | -0.02% | $160.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.21% | +4.51% | |
| Q3 | $1.08 | -0.71% | $157.91 | 29 | no | yes | -2.68% | -0.87% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with PEP's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical PEP ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.14%
Win rate (20 trades)
75%
Cumulative P&L
+2.71%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+6.01%
Best event
+1.08%
Worst event
-4.64%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PEP (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -0.87% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.69% | |
| -1.96% | |
| +0.76% | |
| -1.59% | |
| -4.64% | |
| -0.33% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +1.08% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +1.04% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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