PG dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Procter & Gamble (PG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.42), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PG sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 23, 2026 (±4 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.42
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.42 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.18% | +0.47pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 70% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.47% | +1.52pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 29 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±4 days.
Dividend
$1.09
Per-event yield
0.74%
Annualized yield
2.91%
Previously paid
Jul 24, 2026 ($1.09)
Last record date
Jul 24, 2026
Last payment date
Aug 17, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Procter & Gamble (PG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $1.09 | -0.35% | $146.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.61% | -0.95% | |
| Q2 | $1.09 | 4.32% | $145.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.42% | +1.81% | |
| Q1 | $1.06 | 0.61% | $149.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.09% | +1.93% | |
| Q4 | $1.06 | 2.75% | $152.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.09% | -0.51% | |
| Q3 | $1.06 | -1.18% | $155.62 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.67% | +2.40% | |
| Q2 | $1.06 | -0.43% | $170.63 | 29 | no | yes | -8.23% | -4.53% | |
| Q1 | $1.01 | -0.14% | $166.15 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.78% | +0.51% | |
| Q4 | $1.01 | -1.15% | $172.28 | 25 | no | yes | -4.17% | -1.77% | |
| Q3 | $1.01 | -0.28% | $168.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.17% | +1.00% | |
| Q2 | $1.01 | -0.40% | $156.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.19% | +4.20% | |
| Q1 | $0.94 | -1.14% | $149.94 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.44% | +4.42% | |
| Q4 | $0.94 | -0.28% | $150.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.50% | +0.47% | |
| Q3 | $0.94 | -0.49% | $150.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.43% | +1.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.94 | -0.58% | $151.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.58% | +4.08% | |
| Q1 | $0.91 | -2.12% | $146.41 | >30 | no | no | -5.25% | -2.97% | |
| Q4 | $0.91 | -0.73% | $129.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.38% | +2.50% | |
| Q3 | $0.91 | -0.67% | $141.55 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.35% | +5.24% | |
| Q2 | $0.91 | 0.10% | $163.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.28% | +0.41% | |
| Q1 | $0.87 | -1.16% | $162.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.47% | -1.23% | |
| Q4 | $0.87 | -0.25% | $141.21 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.53% | +1.66% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with PG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical PG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.09%
Win rate (20 trades)
85%
Cumulative P&L
+1.71%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+18.26%
Best event
+0.75%
Worst event
-4.53%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PG (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.62% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.70% | |
| -2.97% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.60% | |
| -1.77% | |
| +0.61% | |
| -4.53% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.74% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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