Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what PSX is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$291.58
Method range
$28.67 – $291.58
median $183.39
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $291.58 | +59.27% |
| Exit multiple | $191.89 | +4.81% |
| Analyst target | $174.89 | -4.47% |
| Graham number | $28.67 | -84.34% |
- Forward DCF$291.58
- Exit multiple$191.89
- Analyst target$174.89
- Graham number$28.67
Stock price
$183.08
EPS (TTM)
$10.15
5Y EPS CAGR
8.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$291.58
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
2.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 37.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
8.1%
Your model implies
2.1%
Analyst consensus for next year implies 71.6% — beyond the model's annualised scale. Consensus reflects a one-step EPS estimate vs TTM, not a multi-year CAGR.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | -1.2% | -2.1% | -3.2% | -4.4% | -5.9% |
| 7.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | -0.3% | -1.3% | -2.4% |
| 8.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 9.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.0% |
| 10.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$21.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.69
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Phillips 66 (PSX) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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