1st Source (SRCE) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.23), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, SRCE sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 4, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.23-0.07 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.23 | -0.07 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.82% | -0.24pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 63% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.38% | +2.00pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 15 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.43 |
| Per-event yield | 0.59% |
| Annualized yield | 2.19% |
| Previously paid | May 5, 2026 ($0.43) |
| Last record date | May 5, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 15, 2026 |
SRCE Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for 1st Source (SRCE). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.43 | -0.70% | $73.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.15% | — | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -0.48% | $68.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.56% | +2.13% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -1.39% | $59.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.39% | +3.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | -0.13% | $59.50 | 6 | no | yes | -2.17% | +3.24% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -2.88% | $61.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.22% | +2.75% | |
| Q1 | $0.36 | -0.75% | $62.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.83% | +8.68% | |
| Q4 | $0.36 | -0.53% | $58.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.04% | +14.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.36 | -4.50% | $60.93 | 15 | no | yes | -8.07% | -7.01% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | 0.79% | $51.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.39% | +2.13% | |
| Q1 | $0.34 | -2.18% | $51.93 | 7 | no | yes | -6.43% | -1.12% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | 1.57% | $46.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.02% | +1.94% | |
| Q3 | $0.32 | -0.36% | $47.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.22% | +4.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.32 | -0.29% | $41.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.98% | -0.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.32 | -1.06% | $50.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.49% | -0.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.32 | -1.11% | $58.70 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.84% | -1.07% | |
| Q3 | $0.32 | -0.89% | $48.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.01% | -0.62% | |
| Q2 | $0.31 | -0.76% | $43.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.26% | +3.26% | |
| Q1 | $0.31 | -0.32% | $49.70 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.92% | -1.39% | |
| Q4 | $0.31 | -0.19% | $48.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.82% | +5.36% | |
| Q3 | $0.31 | -0.24% | $45.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.78% | +2.29% |
- —
- +2.13%
- +3.34%
- +3.24%
- +2.75%
- +8.68%
- +14.34%
- -7.01%
- +2.13%
- -1.12%
- +1.94%
- +4.50%
- -0.02%
- -0.38%
- -1.07%
- -0.62%
- +3.26%
- -1.39%
- +5.36%
- +2.29%
SRCE Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
SRCE Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with SRCE's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $86.00
- After-tax dividend
- $55.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$14.61
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$41.29
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.28%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~14.2%
SRCE Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical SRCE ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · SRCE (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.68% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.73% | |
| -1.12% | |
| +0.66% | |
| -7.01% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +3.24% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.59% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.