Ticker League

Fair Value for 1st Source (SRCE)

See growth priced into 1st Source (SRCE): reverse DCF, implied rate vs history and analysts, FCF view. Free intrinsic value calculator for education.

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what SRCE is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

$371.94

Margin of safety
+79.74% vs current price $75.35

Method range

$44.15 $371.94

median $74.55

Methods disagree

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

  • Forward DCF$371.94
  • Exit multiple$68.09
  • Analyst target$81.00
  • Graham number$44.15

Stock price

$75.35

FCF / share (TTM)

$2.39

3Y FCF CAGR

7.5%

Fair value @ hist. growth

$73.24

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied FCF growth

7.8%

per year over your projection horizon

Premium vs DCF

Margin of safety -2.9% vs hist-growth DCF

Historical 3Y CAGR

7.5%

Your model implies

7.8%

Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)7.5%
Terminal growth2.50%
Projection years10 yr
FCF growth per year (supplemental projection)7%
3Y CAGR 7%

Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 7% annual growth.

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
5.5%4.0%2.8%1.5%-0.2%-2.2%
6.5%6.9%6.0%4.9%3.7%2.3%
7.5%9.5%8.7%7.8%6.9%5.8%
8.5%11.8%11.1%10.4%9.6%8.8%
9.5%13.9%13.4%12.7%12.1%11.3%
Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday9.6· at low
5Y low9.6
Median10.8
5Y high10.9
P/SToday2.5· at low
5Y low2.5
Median2.7
5Y high3.5
EV/EBITDAToday8.4· at low
5Y low8.4
Median8.7
5Y high9.4

Net debt

$271M

Total debt − cash

Beta

0.58

Vs market benchmark

Frequently asked questions