Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what SRCE is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$369.37
Method range
$44.15 – $369.37
median $74.97
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $369.37 | +345.89% |
| Exit multiple | $68.93 | -16.79% |
| Analyst target | $81.00 | -2.22% |
| Graham number | $44.15 | -46.70% |
- Forward DCF$369.37
- Exit multiple$68.93
- Analyst target$81.00
- Graham number$44.15
Stock price
$82.84
FCF / share (TTM)
$2.39
3Y FCF CAGR
7.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$72.77
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
9.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -13.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
7.5%
Your model implies
9.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 7% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.0% | -1.0% |
| 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% |
| 7.5% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.1% |
| 8.5% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 10.0% |
| 9.5% | 15.3% | 14.7% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 12.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$271M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.57
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
1st Source (SRCE) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks2.19% TTM
- Dividend Profile1.94% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History16 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.