Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what SRCE is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$371.94
Method range
$44.15 – $371.94
median $74.55
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $371.94 | +393.61% |
| Exit multiple | $68.09 | -9.63% |
| Analyst target | $81.00 | +7.50% |
| Graham number | $44.15 | -41.40% |
- Forward DCF$371.94
- Exit multiple$68.09
- Analyst target$81.00
- Graham number$44.15
Stock price
$75.35
FCF / share (TTM)
$2.39
3Y FCF CAGR
7.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$73.24
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
7.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -2.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
7.5%
Your model implies
7.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 7% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.5% | -0.2% | -2.2% |
| 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| 7.5% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% |
| 8.5% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.8% |
| 9.5% | 13.9% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 11.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$271M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.58
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
1st Source (SRCE) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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