Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ACGL is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$2,915.17
Method range
$66.36 – $2,915.17
median $91.16
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $2,915.17 | +2,855.66% |
| Exit multiple | $70.93 | -28.09% |
| Analyst target | $111.40 | +12.95% |
| Graham number | $66.36 | -32.71% |
- Forward DCF$2,915.17
- Exit multiple$70.93
- Analyst target$111.40
- Graham number$66.36
Stock price
$98.63
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.28
3Y FCF CAGR
17.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$324.09
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
3.2%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 69.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
17.8%
Your model implies
3.2%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 18% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | -1.0% | -3.0% | -5.4% |
| 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | -0.5% | -2.3% | -4.6% |
| 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% |
| 8.1% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$1.74B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.29
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks7.14% TTM
- Dividend Profile5.07% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History2 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.