Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ACGL is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$2,963.19
Method range
$66.36 – $2,963.19
median $86.50
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $2,963.19 | +3,149.46% |
| Exit multiple | $70.43 | -22.76% |
| Analyst target | $102.57 | +12.48% |
| Graham number | $66.36 | -27.22% |
- Forward DCF$2,963.19
- Exit multiple$70.43
- Analyst target$102.57
- Graham number$66.36
Stock price
$91.19
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.28
3Y FCF CAGR
17.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$329.21
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
2.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 72.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
17.8%
Your model implies
2.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 18% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 1.0% | -0.3% | -1.9% | -3.8% | -6.3% |
| 5.1% | 1.3% | -0.0% | -1.6% | -3.4% | -5.8% |
| 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | -0.7% |
| 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% |
| 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$1.7B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.31
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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