AGM dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 90% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.32), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AGM sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 14, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
90%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.32
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.32 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.56% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.16% | -0.76pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 16 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
Dividend
$1.60
Per-event yield
0.88%
Annualized yield
3.38%
Previously paid
Jun 15, 2026 ($1.60)
Last record date
Jun 15, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 30, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.60 | 0.03% | $182.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.16% | +4.87% | |
| Q1 | $1.60 | -0.07% | $151.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.88% | -4.75% | |
| Q4 | $1.50 | -0.07% | $182.13 | >30 | no | no | -4.78% | -1.30% | |
| Q3 | $1.50 | -0.85% | $196.83 | >30 | no | no | -13.51% | -7.46% | |
| Q2 | $1.50 | 0.13% | $185.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.11% | +6.15% | |
| Q1 | $1.50 | 0.54% | $190.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.28% | +1.17% | |
| Q4 | $1.40 | -0.37% | $210.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.21% | -5.51% | |
| Q3 | $1.40 | -0.33% | $188.48 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.94% | -1.47% | |
| Q2 | $1.40 | -2.19% | $173.37 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.42% | +3.59% | |
| Q1 | $1.40 | -0.71% | $193.95 | 10 | no | yes | -5.74% | -0.27% | |
| Q4 | $1.10 | 1.19% | $177.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.14% | +6.68% | |
| Q3 | $1.10 | 0.41% | $166.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.75% | -4.79% | |
| Q2 | $1.10 | -0.57% | $149.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.79% | -5.17% | |
| Q1 | $1.10 | -3.91% | $129.04 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.38% | -2.12% | |
| Q4 | $0.95 | -1.02% | $121.21 | 16 | no | yes | -8.19% | -4.32% | |
| Q3 | $0.95 | -0.85% | $103.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.96% | +4.98% | |
| Q2 | $0.95 | -1.05% | $91.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.73% | +5.76% | |
| Q1 | $0.95 | -0.05% | $128.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -14.11% | -6.31% | |
| Q4 | $0.88 | -1.10% | $119.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.64% | +0.92% | |
| Q3 | $0.88 | -0.32% | $99.43 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.00% | +2.10% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
Pre-filled with AGM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical AGM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.02%
Win rate (20 trades)
80%
Cumulative P&L
-0.43%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+109.41%
Best event
+1.06%
Worst event
-7.46%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AGM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.89% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +0.91% | |
| -4.32% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.62% | |
| -0.27% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.81% | |
| -7.46% | |
| -1.30% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +0.88% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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