Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AGM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$623.60
Method range
$117.06 – $623.60
median $203.67
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $623.60 | +244.55% |
| Exit multiple | $174.33 | -3.68% |
| Analyst target | $233.00 | +28.74% |
| Graham number | $117.06 | -35.32% |
- Forward DCF$623.60
- Exit multiple$174.33
- Analyst target$233.00
- Graham number$117.06
Stock price
$180.99
FCF / share (TTM)
$7.13
3Y FCF CAGR
-34.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$10.97
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
10.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1550.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-34.8%
Your model implies
10.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -35% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% |
| 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% |
| 9.7% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.0% |
| 10.7% | 13.3% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 11.2% |
| 11.7% | 15.2% | 14.7% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 13.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.28
Low vs growth
Net debt
$29.9B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.03
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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