Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AJG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$185.50
Method range
$81.56 – $528.14
median $232.20
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $185.50 | -23.51% |
| Exit multiple | $528.14 | +117.79% |
| Analyst target | $278.90 | +15.01% |
| Graham number | $81.56 | -66.37% |
- Forward DCF$185.50
- Exit multiple$528.14
- Analyst target$278.90
- Graham number$81.56
Stock price
$242.50
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.58
3Y FCF CAGR
-2.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$52.04
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
16.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -366.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-2.5%
Your model implies
16.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -3% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 4.8% |
| 6.2% | 15.8% | 14.7% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 10.2% |
| 7.2% | 18.7% | 17.8% | 16.8% | 15.6% | 14.4% |
| 8.2% | 21.4% | 20.6% | 19.8% | 18.8% | 17.8% |
| 9.2% | 23.9% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 21.6% | 20.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.04
Low vs growth
Net debt
$12.6B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.51
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Arthur J. Gallagher & (AJG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks0.56% TTM
- Dividend Profile1.11% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History3 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.