Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AJG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$193.26
Method range
$81.56 – $529.28
median $231.58
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $193.26 | -23.84% |
| Exit multiple | $529.28 | +108.57% |
| Analyst target | $269.90 | +6.36% |
| Graham number | $81.56 | -67.86% |
- Forward DCF$193.26
- Exit multiple$529.28
- Analyst target$269.90
- Graham number$81.56
Stock price
$253.76
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.58
3Y FCF CAGR
-2.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$53.94
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
16.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -370.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-2.5%
Your model implies
16.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -3% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 4.0% |
| 6.0% | 15.8% | 14.6% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 9.9% |
| 7.0% | 18.8% | 17.9% | 16.8% | 15.6% | 14.2% |
| 8.0% | 21.6% | 20.7% | 19.8% | 18.9% | 17.8% |
| 9.0% | 24.1% | 23.4% | 22.6% | 21.8% | 20.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.04
Low vs growth
Net debt
$12.6B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.51
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Arthur J. Gallagher & (AJG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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