Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.25), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CBSH sits noticeably below the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 4, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.25-0.06 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.25 | -0.06 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.48% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 30% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.92% | -0.55pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 30 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.28 |
| Per-event yield | 0.53% |
| Annualized yield | 2.05% |
| Previously paid | Mar 6, 2026 ($0.28) |
| Last record date | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 24, 2026 |
CBSH Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Commerce Bancshares (CBSH). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.28 | -2.37% | $51.51 | 30 | no | yes | -8.77% | -6.96% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -0.37% | $51.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.54% | +0.88% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -0.28% | $61.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.05% | -2.77% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | 0.85% | $62.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.35% | -2.58% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -0.92% | $61.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.08% | -1.57% | |
| Q4 | $0.24 | -0.96% | $69.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.76% | -1.57% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | -0.08% | $60.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.79% | -3.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | -0.02% | $51.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.64% | -0.40% | |
| Q1 | $0.27 | -1.49% | $51.53 | 23 | no | yes | -7.06% | -3.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.54 | -1.55% | $45.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.83% | +9.33% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | -1.04% | $45.31 | >30 | no | no | -7.31% | -4.92% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | 0.54% | $44.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.43% | +5.44% | |
| Q1 | $0.27 | -0.95% | $59.88 | >30 | no | no | -15.43% | -10.39% | |
| Q4 | $0.27 | 0.73% | $64.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.85% | -5.12% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | 0.22% | $59.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.95% | +2.07% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | -0.14% | $59.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.36% | -4.65% | |
| Q1 | $0.27 | -0.93% | $59.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.05% | +2.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | -0.40% | $57.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.92% | +3.38% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -0.03% | $58.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.27% | -3.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | -0.22% | $63.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.76% | -3.08% |
- -6.96%
- +0.88%
- -2.77%
- -2.58%
- -1.57%
- -1.57%
- -3.42%
- -0.40%
- -3.38%
- +9.33%
- -4.92%
- +5.44%
- -10.39%
- -5.12%
- +2.07%
- -4.65%
- +2.94%
- +3.38%
- -3.84%
- -3.08%
CBSH Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
CBSH Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CBSH's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $56.00
- After-tax dividend
- $36.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$10.30
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$26.10
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.25%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~12.8%
CBSH Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CBSH ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CBSH (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.41% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.41% | |
| -10.39% | |
| +0.61% | |
| -4.92% | |
| +1.18% | |
| -3.38% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.53% | |
| -6.96% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.