CBSH dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 90% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.26), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CBSH sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 4, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
90%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.26
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.26 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.46% | +0.13pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 35% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.72% | -0.32pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 30 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
Dividend
$0.28
Per-event yield
0.52%
Annualized yield
2.05%
Previously paid
Jun 5, 2026 ($0.28)
Last record date
Jun 5, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 23, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Commerce Bancshares (CBSH). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.28 | 0.02% | $52.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.67% | +6.95% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -2.37% | $51.51 | 30 | no | yes | -8.77% | -6.96% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -0.37% | $51.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.54% | +0.88% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -0.27% | $58.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.05% | -2.74% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | 0.86% | $59.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.35% | -2.56% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -0.92% | $59.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.10% | -1.55% | |
| Q4 | $0.24 | -0.96% | $66.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.75% | -1.54% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | -0.07% | $57.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.77% | -3.38% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | -0.02% | $49.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.64% | -0.38% | |
| Q1 | $0.27 | -1.51% | $49.08 | 23 | no | yes | -7.07% | -3.34% | |
| Q4 | $0.54 | -1.53% | $43.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.83% | +9.41% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | -1.02% | $43.15 | >30 | no | no | -7.30% | -4.89% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | 0.57% | $42.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.40% | +5.47% | |
| Q1 | $0.27 | -0.95% | $57.03 | >30 | no | no | -15.43% | -10.36% | |
| Q4 | $0.27 | 0.71% | $61.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.85% | -5.10% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | 0.23% | $56.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.94% | +2.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | -0.12% | $56.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.35% | -4.64% | |
| Q1 | $0.27 | -0.95% | $57.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.05% | +2.97% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | -0.40% | $54.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.92% | +3.40% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -0.04% | $55.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.27% | -3.81% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
Pre-filled with CBSH's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical CBSH ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.85%
Win rate (20 trades)
80%
Cumulative P&L
-17.08%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+5.61%
Best event
+1.24%
Worst event
-10.36%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CBSH (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.47% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.43% | |
| -10.36% | |
| +0.64% | |
| -4.89% | |
| +1.24% | |
| -3.34% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.53% | |
| -6.96% | |
| +0.52% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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