Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what CBSH is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$168.65
Method range
$25.38 – $168.65
median $59.26
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $168.65 | +217.91% |
| Exit multiple | $60.01 | +13.12% |
| Analyst target | $58.50 | +10.27% |
| Graham number | $25.38 | -52.15% |
- Forward DCF$168.65
- Exit multiple$60.01
- Analyst target$58.50
- Graham number$25.38
Stock price
$53.05
FCF / share (TTM)
$4.65
3Y FCF CAGR
2.7%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$96.07
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
-4.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 44.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
2.7%
Your model implies
-4.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 3% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 10.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | -8.0% | -9.0% | -10.1% | -11.3% | -12.9% |
| 6.5% | -5.7% | -6.4% | -7.2% | -8.2% | -9.3% |
| 7.5% | -3.6% | -4.2% | -4.8% | -5.6% | -6.4% |
| 8.5% | -1.7% | -2.2% | -2.7% | -3.3% | -4.0% |
| 9.5% | 0.1% | -0.4% | -0.8% | -1.3% | -1.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$2.2B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.60
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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