CINF dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Cincinnati Financial (CINF) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.31), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CINF sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 22, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.31
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.31 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.78% | -0.19pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.14% | +0.26pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 13 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$0.94
Per-event yield
0.55%
Annualized yield
2.06%
Previously paid
Jun 23, 2026 ($0.94)
Last record date
Jun 23, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 15, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Cincinnati Financial (CINF). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.94 | 0.43% | $172.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.49% | +7.90% | |
| Q1 | $0.94 | -1.07% | $160.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.24% | -1.19% | |
| Q4 | $0.87 | -0.90% | $167.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.78% | -0.88% | |
| Q3 | $0.87 | -1.05% | $156.11 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.41% | +0.72% | |
| Q2 | $0.87 | -0.42% | $145.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.42% | +2.99% | |
| Q1 | $0.87 | -0.08% | $145.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.23% | +2.04% | |
| Q4 | $0.81 | -0.20% | $143.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.41% | +1.30% | |
| Q3 | $0.81 | -0.58% | $137.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.32% | -0.13% | |
| Q2 | $0.81 | -0.69% | $113.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.91% | +1.70% | |
| Q1 | $0.81 | -0.68% | $119.90 | 6 | no | yes | -2.37% | +1.39% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | -0.25% | $102.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.12% | +0.80% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -0.71% | $108.44 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.63% | -0.63% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -0.69% | $99.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.96% | -3.51% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -1.55% | $107.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.32% | -0.73% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -2.36% | $106.41 | 13 | no | yes | -5.88% | -1.94% | |
| Q3 | $0.69 | -0.69% | $100.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.52% | -6.51% | |
| Q2 | $0.69 | -1.91% | $117.52 | 8 | no | yes | -4.83% | -0.28% | |
| Q1 | $0.69 | -1.16% | $130.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.18% | +3.84% | |
| Q4 | $0.63 | -0.16% | $115.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.05% | -2.43% | |
| Q3 | $0.63 | -0.80% | $117.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.04% | -2.00% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with CINF's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical CINF ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.48%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+9.62%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+62.93%
Best event
+1.39%
Worst event
-1.94%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CINF (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.54% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.53% | |
| -0.28% | |
| +0.69% | |
| -1.94% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +1.39% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.55% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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