Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what CINF is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$981.34
Method range
$63.58 – $981.34
median $130.86
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $981.34 | +493.71% |
| Exit multiple | $79.22 | -52.07% |
| Analyst target | $182.50 | +10.41% |
| Graham number | $63.58 | -61.53% |
- Forward DCF$981.34
- Exit multiple$79.22
- Analyst target$182.50
- Graham number$63.58
Stock price
$165.29
FCF / share (TTM)
$4.22
3Y FCF CAGR
12.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$197.90
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
10.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 16.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
12.9%
Your model implies
10.6%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 13% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| 6.5% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% |
| 7.5% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% |
| 8.5% | 14.7% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 11.5% |
| 9.5% | 16.9% | 16.3% | 15.6% | 14.9% | 14.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$545M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.58
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Cincinnati Financial (CINF) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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