Canadian National Railway (CNI) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.30), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CNI sits noticeably below the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 8, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-6pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.30+0.11 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -6pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.30 | +0.11 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.55% | -0.19pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.55% | -0.52pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 26 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.66 |
| Per-event yield | 0.61% |
| Annualized yield | 2.17% |
| Previously paid | Mar 10, 2026 ($0.67) |
| Last record date | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 31, 2026 |
CNI Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Canadian National Railway (CNI). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.67 | -1.08% | $107.96 | 21 | no | yes | -9.24% | -4.90% | |
| Q4 | $0.64 | -0.57% | $98.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.85% | -0.70% | |
| Q3 | $0.64 | -0.20% | $96.55 | 21 | no | yes | -5.68% | -0.59% | |
| Q2 | $0.65 | -0.69% | $104.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.46% | +0.49% | |
| Q1 | $0.61 | -1.90% | $101.07 | 26 | no | yes | -7.35% | -2.23% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -0.30% | $106.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.60% | -3.36% | |
| Q3 | $0.62 | -0.61% | $117.34 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.66% | +1.75% | |
| Q2 | $0.62 | -1.02% | $126.64 | >30 | no | no | -8.14% | -3.30% | |
| Q1 | $0.62 | 0.16% | $129.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.40% | +1.07% | |
| Q4 | $0.58 | 0.18% | $117.21 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.06% | +2.84% | |
| Q3 | $0.58 | -0.60% | $109.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.90% | +6.04% | |
| Q2 | $0.59 | 0.03% | $116.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.24% | +1.54% | |
| Q1 | $0.57 | -0.16% | $117.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.17% | +1.27% | |
| Q4 | $0.54 | -0.78% | $125.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.44% | +0.69% | |
| Q3 | $0.57 | -0.92% | $116.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.00% | +3.44% | |
| Q2 | $0.58 | -1.38% | $116.64 | >30 | no | no | -8.60% | -4.92% | |
| Q1 | $0.57 | 0.90% | $122.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.77% | +4.15% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | -0.45% | $131.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.45% | -2.61% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | -0.97% | $127.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.09% | -9.30% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -0.40% | $110.96 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.34% | -0.20% |
- -4.90%
- -0.70%
- -0.59%
- +0.49%
- -2.23%
- -3.36%
- +1.75%
- -3.30%
- +1.07%
- +2.84%
- +6.04%
- +1.54%
- +1.27%
- +0.69%
- +3.44%
- -4.92%
- +4.15%
- -2.61%
- -9.30%
- -0.20%
CNI Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
CNI Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CNI's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $132.00
- After-tax dividend
- $85.80
- Slippage round-trip
- -$21.59
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$64.21
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.30%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~15.0%
CNI Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CNI ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CNI (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.45% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.47% | |
| -4.92% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.48% | |
| -3.30% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.56% | |
| -2.23% | |
| +0.62% | |
| -0.59% | |
| +0.65% | |
| -4.90% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.