Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what CNI is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$170.14
Method range
$27.72 – $170.14
median $125.20
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $170.14 | +33.01% |
| Exit multiple | $131.41 | +2.73% |
| Analyst target | $119.00 | -6.97% |
| Graham number | $27.72 | -78.33% |
- Forward DCF$170.14
- Exit multiple$131.41
- Analyst target$119.00
- Graham number$27.72
Stock price
$127.91
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.35
3Y FCF CAGR
-1.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$14.55
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
28.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -778.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-1.4%
Your model implies
28.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -1% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | 24.6% | 23.7% | 22.7% | 21.6% | 20.4% |
| 8.7% | 27.2% | 26.5% | 25.6% | 24.7% | 23.7% |
| 9.7% | 29.7% | 29.0% | 28.3% | 27.5% | 26.7% |
| 10.7% | 32.1% | 31.5% | 30.8% | 30.1% | 29.4% |
| 11.7% | 34.3% | 33.7% | 33.2% | 32.5% | 31.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$21.5B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.01
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Canadian National Railway (CNI) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks3.26% TTM
- Dividend Profile2.04% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History4 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.