Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what CNI is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$175.38
Method range
$27.72 – $175.38
median $130.85
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $175.38 | +45.69% |
| Exit multiple | $149.38 | +24.09% |
| Analyst target | $112.33 | -6.69% |
| Graham number | $27.72 | -76.97% |
- Forward DCF$175.38
- Exit multiple$149.38
- Analyst target$112.33
- Graham number$27.72
Stock price
$120.38
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.35
3Y FCF CAGR
-1.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$14.93
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
26.9%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -706.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-1.4%
Your model implies
26.9%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -1% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | 23.2% | 22.3% | 21.2% | 20.1% | 18.9% |
| 8.5% | 25.9% | 25.1% | 24.2% | 23.3% | 22.3% |
| 9.5% | 28.4% | 27.7% | 26.9% | 26.1% | 25.3% |
| 10.5% | 30.7% | 30.1% | 29.5% | 28.8% | 28.0% |
| 11.5% | 33.0% | 32.4% | 31.8% | 31.2% | 30.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$21.5B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.99
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Canadian National Railway (CNI) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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