COF dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Capital One Financial (COF) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.15), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, COF sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 17, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.80.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.15
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.15 | -0.15 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.21% | +0.37pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.03% | +0.37pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 7 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$0.80
Per-event yield
0.43%
Annualized yield
1.47%
Previously paid
May 19, 2026 ($0.80)
Last record date
May 19, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 1, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Capital One Financial (COF). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.80 | -0.96% | $187.17 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.83% | +1.30% | |
| Q1 | $0.80 | -0.93% | $209.88 | 6 | no | yes | -10.66% | -0.29% | |
| Q4 | $0.80 | -0.63% | $211.15 | 7 | no | yes | -5.71% | -0.72% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | 0.00% | $221.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.28% | +0.33% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | -2.65% | $188.56 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.75% | +1.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | 0.61% | $202.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.57% | -3.78% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -0.54% | $185.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.48% | -1.23% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | -0.41% | $134.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.25% | +6.47% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | -0.17% | $142.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.41% | -0.06% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | -0.20% | $135.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.20% | +1.81% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -0.47% | $104.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.78% | +3.63% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | -0.30% | $112.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.48% | -1.72% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | -0.06% | $87.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.17% | +12.71% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | -2.49% | $121.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.46% | -4.79% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | 5.01% | $101.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.86% | -1.41% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | -1.38% | $106.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.70% | +8.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | 1.33% | $114.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.38% | +0.13% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | -0.84% | $157.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.46% | -1.87% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -0.20% | $157.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.13% | -3.33% | |
| Q3 | $1.20 | 1.02% | $163.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.04% | +9.65% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with COF's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical COF ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.37%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+7.40%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+19.63%
Best event
+0.74%
Worst event
-0.72%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · COF (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.74% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.27% | |
| -0.72% | |
| -0.29% | |
| +0.43% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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