Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what COF is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$23.57
Method range
$23.57 – $267.18
median $150.77
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $23.57 | -86.95% |
| Exit multiple | $182.50 | +1.01% |
| Analyst target | $267.18 | +47.88% |
| Graham number | $119.04 | -34.11% |
- Forward DCF$23.57
- Exit multiple$182.50
- Analyst target$267.18
- Graham number$119.04
Stock price
$180.67
FCF / share (TTM)
$8.79
3Y FCF CAGR
16.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$348.69
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
7.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 48.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
16.6%
Your model implies
7.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 17% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 9.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
| 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% |
| 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% |
| 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.6% |
| 11.8% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 10.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
5.32
Demanding vs growth
Net cash
$6.4B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.05
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Capital One Financial (COF) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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