Estée Lauder Companies (EL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.12), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, EL sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 28, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.12-0.27 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.12 | -0.27 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.19% | +0.45pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.63% | -0.52pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 13 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.35 |
| Per-event yield | 0.31% |
| Annualized yield | 1.57% |
| Previously paid | Feb 27, 2026 ($0.35) |
| Last record date | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 16, 2026 |
EL Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Estée Lauder Companies (EL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.35 | -2.07% | $111.90 | >30 | no | no | -24.83% | -16.83% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | 0.09% | $93.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.74% | +12.57% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | -1.73% | $91.73 | 2 | yes | yes | -9.03% | -2.92% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -0.68% | $68.67 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.59% | +0.20% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | -1.10% | $72.97 | 2 | yes | yes | -11.48% | +0.95% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -2.22% | $73.96 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.31% | +7.72% | |
| Q3 | $0.66 | 0.34% | $90.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.03% | -3.31% | |
| Q2 | $0.66 | 0.27% | $121.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.45% | -0.21% | |
| Q1 | $0.66 | -1.66% | $148.51 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.67% | -1.64% | |
| Q4 | $0.66 | 0.28% | $126.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.79% | +6.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.66 | -0.38% | $159.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.75% | -2.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.66 | -0.15% | $194.44 | 13 | no | yes | -9.97% | -4.96% | |
| Q1 | $0.66 | 0.68% | $242.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.34% | +3.97% | |
| Q4 | $0.66 | 0.08% | $217.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.40% | +9.39% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | 0.34% | $259.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.33% | -4.33% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | 2.53% | $240.40 | 1 | yes | yes | 1.12% | +10.77% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | 0.56% | $293.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.54% | -2.33% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | 0.76% | $334.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.77% | +2.33% | |
| Q3 | $0.53 | 0.42% | $340.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.40% | -0.80% | |
| Q2 | $0.53 | 0.03% | $305.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.78% | -0.64% |
- -16.83%
- +12.57%
- -2.92%
- +0.20%
- +0.95%
- +7.72%
- -3.31%
- -0.21%
- -1.64%
- +6.34%
- -2.02%
- -4.96%
- +3.97%
- +9.39%
- -4.33%
- +10.77%
- -2.33%
- +2.33%
- -0.80%
- -0.64%
EL Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
EL Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with EL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $70.00
- After-tax dividend
- $45.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$22.38
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$23.12
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.10%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~5.2%
EL Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical EL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · EL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.17% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.27% | |
| -4.96% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.37% | |
| -16.83% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.