Southwest Airlines (LUV) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 93% of the last 14 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.19), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, LUV sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 3, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 93%-2pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.19in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 14 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 93% | -2pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.19 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.88% | -0.52pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.27% | -1.24pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 19 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.18 |
| Per-event yield | 0.43% |
| Annualized yield | 1.63% |
| Previously paid | Mar 12, 2026 ($0.18) |
| Last record date | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 2, 2026 |
LUV Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Southwest Airlines (LUV). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.18 | -3.23% | $41.85 | 19 | no | yes | -8.98% | -1.91% | |
| Q4 | $0.18 | -0.75% | $41.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.52% | +2.75% | |
| Q3 | $0.18 | -0.28% | $32.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.18% | -2.98% | |
| Q2 | $0.18 | -0.38% | $31.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.29% | +0.83% | |
| Q1 | $0.18 | -0.36% | $30.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.03% | +10.65% | |
| Q4 | $0.18 | -1.46% | $34.35 | 7 | no | yes | -6.38% | -1.63% | |
| Q3 | $0.18 | -0.68% | $29.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.73% | -1.99% | |
| Q2 | $0.18 | -0.38% | $28.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.35% | -0.49% | |
| Q1 | $0.18 | -1.23% | $34.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -18.62% | -15.16% | |
| Q4 | $0.18 | -1.19% | $29.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.69% | +0.14% | |
| Q3 | $0.18 | -1.11% | $31.42 | >30 | no | no | -9.71% | -6.24% | |
| Q2 | $0.18 | -0.99% | $34.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.13% | +3.45% | |
| Q1 | $0.18 | -0.33% | $33.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.89% | -9.03% | |
| Q1 | $0.18 | 0.09% | $35.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.46% | +6.10% | |
| Q1 | $0.18 | 1.26% | $46.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -24.15% | -2.58% | |
| Q4 | $0.18 | -0.32% | $55.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.68% | -2.00% | |
| Q3 | $0.18 | -0.38% | $50.64 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.80% | +0.06% | |
| Q2 | $0.18 | 0.94% | $47.79 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.80% | +6.21% | |
| Q1 | $0.16 | 0.32% | $53.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.75% | -6.07% | |
| Q4 | $0.16 | -1.38% | $54.37 | >30 | no | no | -10.74% | -6.09% |
- -1.91%
- +2.75%
- -2.98%
- +0.83%
- +10.65%
- -1.63%
- -1.99%
- -0.49%
- -15.16%
- +0.14%
- -6.24%
- +3.45%
- -9.03%
- +6.10%
- -2.58%
- -2.00%
- +0.06%
- +6.21%
- -6.07%
- -6.09%
LUV Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
LUV Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with LUV's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $36.00
- After-tax dividend
- $23.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$8.37
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$15.03
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.18%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~9.1%
LUV Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical LUV ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · LUV (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -6.09% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.53% | |
| -6.24% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.61% | |
| -1.63% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.43% | |
| -1.91% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.