Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what LUV is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$3.74
Method range
$3.74 – $89.63
median $30.32
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $3.74 | -91.00% |
| Exit multiple | $89.63 | +115.76% |
| Analyst target | $48.74 | +17.33% |
| Graham number | $11.90 | -71.36% |
- Forward DCF$3.74
- Exit multiple$89.63
- Analyst target$48.74
- Graham number$11.90
Stock price
$41.54
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.58
3Y FCF CAGR
—
Fair value @ hist. growth
$30.83
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
12.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -34.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 8% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% |
| 9.3% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.6% |
| 10.3% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 10.9% |
| 11.3% | 15.0% | 14.5% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 13.0% |
| 12.3% | 16.8% | 16.4% | 15.9% | 15.5% | 15.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$2.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.16
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Southwest Airlines (LUV) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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