Ticker League

Fair Value for Southwest Airlines (LUV)

See growth priced into Southwest Airlines (LUV): reverse DCF, implied rate vs history and analysts, FCF view. Free intrinsic value calculator for education.

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what LUV is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

$3.74

Above fair value
-1,011.14% vs current price $41.54

Method range

$3.74 $89.63

median $30.32

Methods disagree

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

  • Forward DCF$3.74
  • Exit multiple$89.63
  • Analyst target$48.74
  • Graham number$11.90

Stock price

$41.54

FCF / share (TTM)

$1.58

3Y FCF CAGR

Fair value @ hist. growth

$30.83

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied FCF growth

12.1%

per year over your projection horizon

Premium vs DCF

Margin of safety -34.7% vs hist-growth DCF

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)10.3%
Terminal growth2.50%
Projection years10 yr
FCF growth per year (supplemental projection)8%

Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 8% annual growth.

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
8.3%9.1%8.4%7.7%6.9%6.1%
9.3%11.2%10.6%10.0%9.3%8.6%
10.3%13.1%12.6%12.1%11.5%10.9%
11.3%15.0%14.5%14.1%13.6%13.0%
12.3%16.8%16.4%15.9%15.5%15.0%
Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday50.6· at high
5Y low26.0
Median37.0
5Y high50.6
P/SToday0.8
5Y low0.7
Median0.8
5Y high1.6
EV/EBITDAToday11.2· at high
5Y low7.1
Median8.4
5Y high11.2

Net debt

$2.8B

Total debt − cash

Beta

1.16

Vs market benchmark

Frequently asked questions