PGR dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Progressive (PGR) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.29), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PGR sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 1, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.29
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.29 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.74% | -0.16pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.35% | -0.95pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 5 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$0.10
Per-event yield
0.04%
Annualized yield
5.99%
Previously paid
Jul 2, 2026 ($0.10)
Last record date
Jul 2, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 10, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Progressive (PGR). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.10 | 0.31% | $225.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.86% | +2.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.10 | 0.20% | $193.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.61% | +0.45% | |
| Q1 | $13.60 | -5.88% | $227.72 | >30 | no | no | -11.00% | +0.46% | |
| Q4 | $0.10 | -0.82% | $246.46 | 2 | yes | yes | -11.87% | -1.70% | |
| Q3 | $0.10 | 0.02% | $257.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.55% | -4.93% | |
| Q2 | $0.10 | -1.04% | $281.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.82% | -2.83% | |
| Q1 | $4.60 | -2.61% | $243.59 | 5 | yes | yes | -6.18% | +1.93% | |
| Q4 | $0.10 | -0.15% | $254.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.42% | -1.00% | |
| Q3 | $0.10 | -0.10% | $211.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.71% | +0.38% | |
| Q2 | $0.10 | 0.12% | $210.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.78% | -1.80% | |
| Q1 | $0.85 | -1.42% | $169.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.75% | +5.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.10 | 0.01% | $139.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.51% | +3.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.10 | -0.57% | $131.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -15.23% | -12.59% | |
| Q2 | $0.10 | -0.44% | $144.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.38% | -4.14% | |
| Q1 | $0.10 | -0.08% | $131.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.52% | +1.37% | |
| Q4 | $0.10 | -0.74% | $122.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.05% | +0.15% | |
| Q3 | $0.10 | -0.12% | $117.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.03% | +0.32% | |
| Q2 | $0.10 | 0.01% | $114.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.67% | -0.19% | |
| Q4 | $1.50 | -1.28% | $103.02 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.63% | +1.75% | |
| Q4 | $0.10 | -0.27% | $91.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.09% | -0.37% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with PGR's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical PGR ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.27%
Win rate (20 trades)
100%
Cumulative P&L
+5.30%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+178.73%
Best event
+1.89%
Worst event
+0.04%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PGR (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.11% | |
| +1.46% | |
| +0.09% | |
| +0.09% | |
| +0.08% | |
| +0.08% | |
| +0.07% | |
| +0.08% | |
| +0.07% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.05% | |
| +0.05% | |
| +0.04% | |
| +1.89% | |
| +0.04% | |
| +0.04% | |
| +0.04% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.05% | |
| +0.04% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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