Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what PGR is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,661.38
Method range
$86.12 – $1,661.38
median $262.72
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,661.38 | +712.25% |
| Exit multiple | $298.19 | +45.79% |
| Analyst target | $227.25 | +11.10% |
| Graham number | $86.12 | -57.90% |
- Forward DCF$1,661.38
- Exit multiple$298.19
- Analyst target$227.25
- Graham number$86.12
Stock price
$204.54
EPS (TTM)
$19.94
5Y EPS CAGR
14.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$1,661.38
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
-10.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 87.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
14.8%
Your model implies
-10.3%
Next-year analyst consensus
-12.2%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | -10.8% | -11.8% | -13.1% | -14.7% | -16.7% |
| 5.0% | -10.8% | -11.8% | -13.1% | -14.7% | -16.7% |
| 5.9% | -8.5% | -9.3% | -10.3% | -11.4% | -12.7% |
| 6.9% | -6.3% | -6.9% | -7.7% | -8.5% | -9.5% |
| 7.9% | -4.3% | -4.8% | -5.5% | -6.1% | -6.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.47
Low vs growth
Net debt
$6.77B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.25
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Progressive (PGR) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks0.51% TTM
- Dividend Profile6.80% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History9 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.