Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what PGR is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,638.89
Method range
$76.97 – $1,638.89
median $252.85
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,638.89 | +703.30% |
| Exit multiple | $277.37 | +35.95% |
| Analyst target | $228.33 | +11.92% |
| Graham number | $76.97 | -62.28% |
- Forward DCF$1,638.89
- Exit multiple$277.37
- Analyst target$228.33
- Graham number$76.97
Stock price
$204.02
FCF / share (TTM)
$7.35
3Y FCF CAGR
22.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$1166.76
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
1.5%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 82.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
22.9%
Your model implies
1.5%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 23% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 9.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 1.0% | -0.3% | -1.9% | -3.8% | -6.3% |
| 5.0% | 1.0% | -0.3% | -1.9% | -3.8% | -6.3% |
| 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.1% | -1.5% |
| 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
| 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$6.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.27
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Progressive (PGR) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation