RLI (RLI) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.87), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, RLI sits noticeably below the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 28, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.87+0.57 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.87 | +0.57 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.81% | -0.24pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.23% | +1.15pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 11 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $2.18 |
| Per-event yield | 3.50% |
| Annualized yield | 9.31% |
| Previously paid | Mar 2, 2026 ($0.16) |
| Last record date | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 16, 2026 |
RLI Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for RLI (RLI). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.16 | -1.25% | $62.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.69% | -1.81% | |
| Q4 | $2.16 | -3.14% | $63.92 | 11 | no | yes | -4.71% | +1.11% | |
| Q3 | $0.16 | 0.09% | $67.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.54% | +1.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.16 | -0.30% | $76.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.29% | -0.28% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | 0.45% | $75.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.76% | +0.33% | |
| Q4 | $4.29 | -1.95% | $90.12 | >30 | no | no | -9.04% | -0.03% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | -0.16% | $76.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.33% | +0.55% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | -0.20% | $71.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.01% | -0.45% | |
| Q1 | $0.27 | -0.14% | $74.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.01% | +0.73% | |
| Q4 | $2.27 | -1.24% | $67.94 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.74% | +2.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | -0.59% | $64.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.59% | +3.61% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | -0.78% | $63.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.47% | +2.54% | |
| Q1 | $0.26 | 0.35% | $65.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.62% | +4.89% | |
| Q4 | $7.26 | -5.52% | $65.92 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.72% | +8.30% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -0.34% | $56.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.12% | -0.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | -0.17% | $60.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.69% | -0.20% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | 0.06% | $49.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.25% | +4.61% | |
| Q4 | $2.25 | -0.35% | $54.36 | 10 | no | yes | -5.85% | +2.59% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | -0.31% | $55.36 | >30 | no | no | -6.21% | -3.59% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | 0.88% | $52.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.15% | +0.06% |
- -1.81%
- +1.11%
- +1.18%
- -0.28%
- +0.33%
- -0.03%
- +0.55%
- -0.45%
- +0.73%
- +2.34%
- +3.61%
- +2.54%
- +4.89%
- +8.30%
- -0.70%
- -0.20%
- +4.61%
- +2.59%
- -3.59%
- +0.06%
RLI Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
RLI Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with RLI's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $436.00
- After-tax dividend
- $283.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$12.46
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$270.94
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +2.17%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~109.6%
RLI Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical RLI ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · RLI (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.48% | |
| -3.59% | |
| +2.59% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +11.01% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +3.34% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.38% | |
| -0.03% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +0.26% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.