Tootsie Roll Industries (TR) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 18 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.12), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TR sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 1, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.12-0.26 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 18 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.12 | -0.26 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.11% | +0.53pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.17% | +0.95pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 2 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.09 |
| Per-event yield | 0.21% |
| Annualized yield | 0.99% |
| Previously paid | Mar 5, 2026 ($0.09) |
| Last record date | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 27, 2026 |
TR Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Tootsie Roll Industries (TR). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.09 | -0.33% | $41.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.12% | -1.26% | |
| Q4 | $0.09 | 0.54% | $37.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.48% | -4.95% | |
| Q4 | $0.09 | -0.05% | $40.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.11% | -1.71% | |
| Q2 | $0.09 | -0.06% | $31.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.95% | +0.13% | |
| Q1 | $0.09 | -0.07% | $29.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.30% | +1.36% | |
| Q4 | $0.09 | -0.51% | $29.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.51% | +1.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.09 | 0.07% | $26.83 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.00% | +3.06% | |
| Q1 | $0.09 | 0.10% | $29.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.31% | +1.08% | |
| Q4 | $0.09 | -0.30% | $29.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.20% | -1.65% | |
| Q4 | $0.09 | -0.87% | $27.59 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.20% | -1.59% | |
| Q2 | $0.09 | 0.24% | $33.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.03% | -1.42% | |
| Q1 | $0.09 | 0.45% | $37.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.07% | +0.24% | |
| Q4 | $0.09 | 0.16% | $37.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.02% | -1.47% | |
| Q4 | $0.09 | -1.28% | $28.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.56% | +8.64% | |
| Q2 | $0.09 | 0.83% | $27.75 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.32% | +10.92% | |
| Q1 | $0.09 | -0.40% | $29.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.45% | -3.97% | |
| Q4 | $0.09 | -0.03% | $30.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.85% | -0.42% | |
| Q4 | $0.09 | -0.41% | $26.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.74% | -0.71% | |
| Q2 | $0.10 | -0.21% | $28.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.99% | -6.07% | |
| Q4 | $0.09 | 0.04% | $24.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.75% | +0.90% |
- -1.26%
- -4.95%
- -1.71%
- +0.13%
- +1.36%
- +1.38%
- +3.06%
- +1.08%
- -1.65%
- -1.59%
- -1.42%
- +0.24%
- -1.47%
- +8.64%
- +10.92%
- -3.97%
- -0.42%
- -0.71%
- -6.07%
- +0.90%
TR Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 19 | 95% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
TR Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TR's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $18.00
- After-tax dividend
- $11.70
- Slippage round-trip
- -$8.39
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$3.31
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.04%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~2.0%
TR Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TR ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TR (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.37% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.21% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.