Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what TR is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$72.52
Method range
$8.18 – $72.52
median $38.03
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $72.52 | +88.92% |
| Exit multiple | $38.03 | -0.93% |
| Analyst target | — | — |
| Graham number | $8.18 | -78.69% |
- Forward DCF$72.52
- Exit multiple$38.03
- Analyst target—
- Graham number$8.18
Stock price
$38.39
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.04
3Y FCF CAGR
16.0%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$3.30
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
50.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1064.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
16.0%
Your model implies
50.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 16% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 46.0% | 43.9% | 41.4% | 38.4% | 34.6% |
| 5.6% | 48.7% | 46.9% | 44.8% | 42.4% | 39.4% |
| 6.6% | 53.2% | 51.7% | 50.0% | 48.2% | 46.1% |
| 7.6% | 57.1% | 55.8% | 54.5% | 53.0% | 51.3% |
| 8.6% | 60.6% | 59.5% | 58.4% | 57.1% | 55.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$114M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.40
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Tootsie Roll Industries (TR) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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