AES dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 90% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
AES (AES) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.63), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AES sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 30, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
90%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.63
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.63 | +0.18 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.91% | -0.23pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 58% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.87% | -0.12pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 20 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$0.18
Per-event yield
1.18%
Annualized yield
4.79%
Previously paid
Jul 31, 2026 ($0.18)
Last record date
Jul 31, 2026
Last payment date
Aug 14, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for AES (AES). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.18 | -1.01% | $14.85 | >30 | no | no | -1.35% | — | |
| Q2 | $0.18 | -0.90% | $14.45 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.45% | +0.39% | |
| Q1 | $0.18 | -1.40% | $15.04 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.66% | +7.89% | |
| Q4 | $0.18 | -1.78% | $14.02 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.78% | +2.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.18 | 0.08% | $13.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.95% | +1.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.18 | -1.00% | $10.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.00% | +9.96% | |
| Q1 | $0.18 | -0.80% | $11.27 | 20 | no | yes | -12.16% | -4.65% | |
| Q4 | $0.17 | -2.43% | $16.49 | >30 | no | no | -19.53% | -16.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.17 | -0.96% | $17.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.06% | -5.44% | |
| Q2 | $0.17 | -2.86% | $17.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.08% | +6.45% | |
| Q1 | $0.17 | -0.18% | $16.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.48% | -2.81% | |
| Q4 | $0.17 | -0.33% | $14.95 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.87% | +9.07% | |
| Q3 | $0.17 | 0.23% | $21.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.57% | -8.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.17 | -1.06% | $23.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.89% | -3.11% | |
| Q1 | $0.17 | -0.45% | $26.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.78% | +0.51% | |
| Q4 | $0.16 | -0.79% | $26.46 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.63% | +1.81% | |
| Q3 | $0.16 | -0.81% | $22.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.39% | +9.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.16 | 0.33% | $21.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.15% | +1.84% | |
| Q1 | $0.16 | -1.81% | $22.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.89% | -0.87% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -0.32% | $25.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.81% | -4.26% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
Pre-filled with AES's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical AES ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (19 events)
-0.26%
Win rate (19 trades)
89%
Cumulative P&L
-4.87%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-28.18%
Best event
+1.76%
Worst event
-16.48%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
19 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AES (19)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.60% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.97% | |
| -16.48% | |
| -4.65% | |
| +1.76% | |
| +1.34% | |
| +1.25% | |
| +1.17% | |
| +1.22% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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