AES (AES) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.45), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AES sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 31, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.45in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.45 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.94% | -0.26pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 58% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.87% | in line with sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 20 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.18 |
| Per-event yield | 1.22% |
| Annualized yield | 4.93% |
| Previously paid | May 1, 2026 ($0.18) |
| Last record date | May 1, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 15, 2026 |
AES Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for AES (AES). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.18 | -0.90% | $14.45 | >30 | no | no | -1.31% | — | |
| Q1 | $0.18 | -1.40% | $15.04 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.66% | +7.89% | |
| Q4 | $0.18 | -1.78% | $14.02 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.78% | +2.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.18 | 0.08% | $13.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.95% | +1.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.18 | -1.00% | $10.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.00% | +9.96% | |
| Q1 | $0.18 | -0.80% | $11.27 | 20 | no | yes | -12.16% | -4.65% | |
| Q4 | $0.17 | -2.43% | $16.49 | >30 | no | no | -19.53% | -16.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.17 | -0.96% | $17.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.06% | -5.44% | |
| Q2 | $0.17 | -2.86% | $17.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.08% | +6.45% | |
| Q1 | $0.17 | -0.18% | $16.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.48% | -2.81% | |
| Q4 | $0.17 | -0.33% | $14.95 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.87% | +9.07% | |
| Q3 | $0.17 | 0.23% | $21.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.57% | -8.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.17 | -1.06% | $23.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.89% | -3.11% | |
| Q1 | $0.17 | -0.45% | $26.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.78% | +0.51% | |
| Q4 | $0.16 | -0.79% | $26.46 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.63% | +1.81% | |
| Q3 | $0.16 | -0.81% | $22.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.39% | +9.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.16 | 0.33% | $21.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.15% | +1.84% | |
| Q1 | $0.16 | -1.81% | $22.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.89% | -0.87% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -0.32% | $25.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.81% | -4.26% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -1.57% | $24.27 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.38% | +1.98% |
- —
- +7.89%
- +2.04%
- +1.11%
- +9.96%
- -4.65%
- -16.48%
- -5.44%
- +6.45%
- -2.81%
- +9.07%
- -8.45%
- -3.11%
- +0.51%
- +1.81%
- +9.42%
- +1.84%
- -0.87%
- -4.26%
- +1.98%
AES Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
AES Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with AES's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $36.00
- After-tax dividend
- $23.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$2.89
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$20.51
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.71%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~35.8%
AES Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical AES ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
19 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AES (19)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.62% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.97% | |
| -16.48% | |
| -4.65% | |
| +1.76% | |
| +1.34% | |
| +1.25% | |
| +1.17% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.