Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AES is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$4,382.41
Method range
$9.73 – $4,382.41
median $55.78
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $4,382.41 | +29,773.27% |
| Exit multiple | $93.22 | +535.47% |
| Analyst target | $18.33 | +24.95% |
| Graham number | $9.73 | -33.65% |
- Forward DCF$4,382.41
- Exit multiple$93.22
- Analyst target$18.33
- Graham number$9.73
Stock price
$14.67
EPS (TTM)
$1.88
5Y EPS CAGR
78.3%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$4382.41
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
-6.5%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 99.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
78.3%
Your model implies
-6.5%
Next-year analyst consensus
23.4%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | -9.1% | -9.6% | -10.2% | -10.9% | -11.7% |
| 8.3% | -7.3% | -7.8% | -8.3% | -8.8% | -9.5% |
| 9.3% | -5.7% | -6.1% | -6.5% | -7.0% | -7.5% |
| 10.3% | -4.2% | -4.5% | -4.9% | -5.3% | -5.7% |
| 11.3% | -2.7% | -3.0% | -3.3% | -3.7% | -4.1% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.11
Low vs growth
Net debt
$28.3B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.96
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
AES (AES) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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