Ally Financial (ALLY) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.23), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ALLY sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 31, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.23-0.07 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.23 | -0.07 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.01% | -0.43pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 63% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.90% | +0.48pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 9 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.30 |
| Per-event yield | 0.68% |
| Annualized yield | 2.76% |
| Previously paid | May 1, 2026 ($0.30) |
| Last record date | May 1, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 15, 2026 |
ALLY Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Ally Financial (ALLY). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.30 | -0.52% | $44.39 | >30 | no | no | -3.20% | — | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.80% | $42.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.27% | +0.14% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -0.92% | $39.20 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.91% | +0.94% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | -2.22% | $37.85 | 8 | no | yes | -4.60% | -0.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -0.61% | $32.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.81% | +3.49% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.73% | $39.84 | >30 | no | no | -7.76% | -3.11% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -0.68% | $35.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.40% | +8.02% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | -0.27% | $45.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -15.80% | -9.53% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -1.48% | $39.16 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.40% | +1.38% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -2.47% | $37.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.26% | -4.26% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -1.05% | $23.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.55% | +11.51% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | -0.27% | $29.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.11% | -1.17% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -1.65% | $26.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.77% | -1.46% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.57% | $31.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.52% | +10.32% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -1.27% | $28.29 | 9 | no | yes | -12.23% | -7.67% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | -0.31% | $32.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.41% | +0.86% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -1.23% | $41.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.83% | +1.37% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -1.15% | $46.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.65% | +3.66% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -0.83% | $47.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.27% | +3.69% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | -1.19% | $52.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.25% | +0.25% |
- —
- +0.14%
- +0.94%
- -0.18%
- +3.49%
- -3.11%
- +8.02%
- -9.53%
- +1.38%
- -4.26%
- +11.51%
- -1.17%
- -1.46%
- +10.32%
- -7.67%
- +0.86%
- +1.37%
- +3.66%
- +3.69%
- +0.25%
ALLY Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
ALLY Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with ALLY's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $60.00
- After-tax dividend
- $39.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$8.88
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$30.12
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.34%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~17.1%
ALLY Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical ALLY ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
19 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ALLY (19)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.48% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.92% | |
| -7.67% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +1.15% | |
| +1.00% | |
| +1.26% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.86% | |
| -3.11% | |
| +0.92% | |
| -0.18% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.71% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.