Booking Holdings (BKNG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 9 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.09), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, BKNG sits noticeably below the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 4, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-6pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.09-0.12 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 9 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -6pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.09 | -0.12 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.27% | +0.21pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 44% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.77% | +0.90pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 1 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
| Dividend | $0.42 |
| Per-event yield | 0.01% |
| Annualized yield | 0.97% |
| Previously paid | Mar 6, 2026 ($10.50) |
| Last record date | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 31, 2026 |
BKNG Dividend Capture History — Last 9 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Booking Holdings (BKNG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $10.50 | -2.07% | $4613.28 | >30 | no | no | -8.67% | -7.84% | |
| Q4 | $9.60 | 0.17% | $5027.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.50% | +5.65% | |
| Q3 | $9.60 | 0.15% | $5585.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.77% | -2.11% | |
| Q2 | $9.60 | 0.81% | $5570.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.35% | -4.71% | |
| Q1 | $9.60 | -0.37% | $4695.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.87% | -4.70% | |
| Q4 | $8.75 | -0.53% | $5287.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.58% | -0.98% | |
| Q3 | $8.75 | -0.13% | $3781.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.14% | +4.22% | |
| Q2 | $8.75 | -0.60% | $3810.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.66% | +1.52% | |
| Q1 | $8.75 | 0.16% | $3428.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.56% | +2.69% |
- -7.84%
- +5.65%
- -2.11%
- -4.71%
- -4.70%
- -0.98%
- +4.22%
- +1.52%
- +2.69%
BKNG Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 8 | 89% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 11% |
BKNG Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with BKNG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $84.00
- After-tax dividend
- $54.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$922.66
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- $-868.06
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.09%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- -0.09%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~-4.7%
BKNG Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical BKNG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
9 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · BKNG (9)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.26% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.19% | |
| -7.84% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.