The Hartford (HIG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.31), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, HIG sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.31in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.31 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.75% | -0.18pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.97% | +1.41pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 15 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.60 |
| Per-event yield | 0.43% |
| Annualized yield | 1.83% |
| Previously paid | Mar 2, 2026 ($0.60) |
| Last record date | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 2, 2026 |
HIG Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for The Hartford (HIG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.60 | -0.92% | $140.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.15% | -1.62% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -0.53% | $137.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.37% | -4.89% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -0.31% | $132.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.14% | -0.72% | |
| Q2 | $0.52 | -0.77% | $129.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.66% | -1.89% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | -0.02% | $118.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.38% | -0.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | 0.13% | $123.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.24% | -5.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.47 | -0.59% | $116.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.55% | +1.04% | |
| Q2 | $0.47 | -0.72% | $103.45 | 13 | no | yes | -5.03% | -2.04% | |
| Q1 | $0.47 | -0.81% | $95.84 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.59% | +1.55% | |
| Q4 | $0.47 | -0.43% | $76.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.43% | +2.31% | |
| Q3 | $0.42 | -0.36% | $72.16 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.55% | -0.34% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | -1.15% | $68.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.99% | +4.95% | |
| Q1 | $0.42 | -0.53% | $77.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -16.94% | -8.69% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | -0.88% | $75.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.43% | -1.11% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -0.20% | $65.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.37% | +2.62% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -1.17% | $72.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.63% | +1.53% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | -3.08% | $70.74 | 15 | no | yes | -8.17% | -7.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -1.25% | $68.61 | 6 | no | yes | -5.47% | +0.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | -0.75% | $67.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.75% | +2.88% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -0.43% | $65.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.51% | -0.36% |
- -1.62%
- -4.89%
- -0.72%
- -1.89%
- -0.35%
- -5.34%
- +1.04%
- -2.04%
- +1.55%
- +2.31%
- -0.34%
- +4.95%
- -8.69%
- -1.11%
- +2.62%
- +1.53%
- -7.03%
- +0.04%
- +2.88%
- -0.36%
HIG Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
HIG Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with HIG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $120.00
- After-tax dividend
- $78.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$28.17
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$49.83
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.18%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~8.9%
HIG Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical HIG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · HIG (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.53% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.04% | |
| -7.03% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.49% | |
| -2.04% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.43% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.