Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what HIG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,650.44
Method range
$68.54 – $1,650.44
median $137.79
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,650.44 | +1,149.01% |
| Exit multiple | $124.01 | -6.15% |
| Analyst target | $151.56 | +14.70% |
| Graham number | $68.54 | -48.13% |
- Forward DCF$1,650.44
- Exit multiple$124.01
- Analyst target$151.56
- Graham number$68.54
Stock price
$132.14
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.64
3Y FCF CAGR
15.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$244.51
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
8.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 46.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
15.8%
Your model implies
8.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 16% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% | -0.9% | -3.5% |
| 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| 6.9% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% |
| 7.9% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 9.0% |
| 8.9% | 14.7% | 14.0% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 11.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$4.2B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.47
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
The Hartford (HIG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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