Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what HIG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,613.57
Method range
$68.54 – $1,613.57
median $135.65
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,613.57 | +1,045.68% |
| Exit multiple | $120.87 | -14.18% |
| Analyst target | $150.43 | +6.81% |
| Graham number | $68.54 | -51.34% |
- Forward DCF$1,613.57
- Exit multiple$120.87
- Analyst target$150.43
- Graham number$68.54
Stock price
$140.84
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.64
3Y FCF CAGR
15.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$239.26
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
9.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 41.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
15.8%
Your model implies
9.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 16% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.9% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.8% |
| 7.0% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% |
| 8.0% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 10.0% |
| 9.0% | 15.7% | 15.1% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 12.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$4.24B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.47
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Hartford Insurance Group (HIG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks6.59% TTM
- Dividend Profile1.65% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History1 split
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.