Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ILMN is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$40.10
Method range
$18.57 – $242.17
median $102.96
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $40.10 | -78.99% |
| Exit multiple | $242.17 | +26.88% |
| Analyst target | $165.82 | -13.12% |
| Graham number | $18.57 | -90.27% |
- Forward DCF$40.10
- Exit multiple$242.17
- Analyst target$165.82
- Graham number$18.57
Stock price
$190.87
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.64
3Y FCF CAGR
38.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$214.86
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
37.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 11.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
38.8%
Your model implies
37.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 39% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | 33.5% | 32.8% | 32.1% | 31.3% | 30.5% |
| 11.0% | 35.9% | 35.3% | 34.6% | 33.9% | 33.2% |
| 12.0% | 38.1% | 37.6% | 37.0% | 36.4% | 35.7% |
| 13.0% | 40.3% | 39.8% | 39.3% | 38.7% | 38.1% |
| 14.0% | 42.4% | 41.9% | 41.5% | 40.9% | 40.4% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$1.14B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.47
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Illumina (ILMN) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.