Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ILMN is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$40.15
Method range
$18.57 – $241.79
median $95.78
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $40.15 | -75.26% |
| Exit multiple | $241.79 | +48.96% |
| Analyst target | $151.40 | -6.73% |
| Graham number | $18.57 | -88.56% |
- Forward DCF$40.15
- Exit multiple$241.79
- Analyst target$151.40
- Graham number$18.57
Stock price
$162.32
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.64
3Y FCF CAGR
38.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$215.36
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
34.5%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 24.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
38.8%
Your model implies
34.5%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 39% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | 31.1% | 30.5% | 29.8% | 29.0% | 28.2% |
| 11.0% | 33.4% | 32.9% | 32.2% | 31.5% | 30.8% |
| 12.0% | 35.7% | 35.1% | 34.5% | 33.9% | 33.3% |
| 13.0% | 37.8% | 37.3% | 36.8% | 36.2% | 35.7% |
| 14.0% | 39.8% | 39.4% | 38.9% | 38.4% | 37.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$1.1B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.49
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Illumina (ILMN) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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