ODFL dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.06), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ODFL sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Sep 2, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.29.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.06
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.06 | -0.11 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.09% | +0.25pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.92% | -1.89pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 11 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$0.29
Per-event yield
0.13%
Annualized yield
0.54%
Previously paid
Jun 3, 2026 ($0.29)
Last record date
Jun 3, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 17, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.29 | 2.58% | $229.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.38% | +3.13% | |
| Q1 | $0.29 | 2.76% | $207.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -15.34% | -9.07% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | 0.59% | $141.46 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.03% | +11.41% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -0.57% | $149.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.13% | -2.21% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -0.40% | $163.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.28% | -0.39% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | 0.24% | $175.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.08% | -5.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | -1.48% | $218.59 | >30 | no | no | -9.95% | -6.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | 1.73% | $194.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.68% | -2.91% | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | 0.31% | $172.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.86% | +1.69% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | -0.95% | $223.12 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.26% | -0.93% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -0.91% | $201.95 | 11 | no | yes | -9.12% | -5.16% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.80% | $217.94 | 3 | yes | yes | -8.22% | -3.03% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | -2.10% | $156.80 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.97% | -0.22% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -0.80% | $171.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.57% | +2.39% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -0.39% | $144.88 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.98% | +5.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | 0.68% | $136.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.17% | -4.06% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -1.45% | $132.07 | 3 | yes | yes | -9.89% | +1.33% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.71% | $157.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.70% | -4.48% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | 0.04% | $178.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.14% | +2.01% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | -0.09% | $146.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.85% | +2.14% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with ODFL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical ODFL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.40%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
-8.08%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+64.89%
Best event
+0.26%
Worst event
-6.19%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ODFL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.14% | |
| +0.11% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.18% | |
| -5.16% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.13% | |
| -6.19% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.13% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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