Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) — FAQ

Question 1

What is a reverse DCF analysis?

Accepted Answer

Reverse DCF solves for the annual growth rate implied by the current price, instead of assuming a growth rate to compute fair value. This page runs the model on trailing EPS and on free cash flow per share — both views appear below so you can compare what the market implies under each.

Question 2

What EPS growth is priced into ODFL?

Accepted Answer

On the EPS basis, the model implies about 21.2% annual EPS growth for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) at the current price. Compare to the 5-year historical EPS CAGR of 11.2%.

Question 3

What FCF / share growth is priced into ODFL?

Accepted Answer

On the FCF / share basis, the model implies about 37.9% annual free-cash-flow-per-share growth for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) at the current price. Compare to the 3-year historical FCF-per-share CAGR of 12.5%.

Question 4

Should I use EPS basis or FCF / share basis?

Accepted Answer

EPS basis is the textbook reverse-DCF input — broadly comparable across companies and easy to relate to next-year analyst consensus — but it is distorted by non-cash items like stock-based compensation and large depreciation. FCF / share is closer to the cash actually available to shareholders after capex; it tends to give a cleaner picture for mature cash-generative businesses, but it is more volatile during heavy-capex years and analyst consensus is not available for it. Most premium DCF tools recommend cross-checking both.

Question 5

What is ODFL's fair value based on historical growth?

Accepted Answer

If Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) grew at its historical per-share CAGR in the DCF setup, the model produces the following fair values. Using the historical EPS CAGR, fair value lands at about $113.31 — 51.3% below the current price. Using the historical FCF-per-share CAGR, fair value lands at about $38.75 — 83.4% below the current price.

Question 6

Is ODFL overvalued or undervalued?

Accepted Answer

Compare the implied per-share growth on each basis to the corresponding historical CAGR and, for EPS, to analyst consensus. A reverse DCF is one educational lens — it does not account for changes in capital structure, sector cycles, or business-model transitions, and it is not investment advice.

Method	Fair value	Upside vs price
Forward DCF	$113.31	-51.33%
Exit multiple	$163.44	-29.79%
Analyst target	$231.13	-0.72%
Graham number	$23.32	-89.98%

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
8.6%	34.1%	33.2%	32.3%	31.3%	30.2%
9.6%	36.7%	36.0%	35.2%	34.3%	33.4%
10.6%	39.3%	38.6%	37.9%	37.1%	36.3%
11.6%	41.7%	41.1%	40.4%	39.7%	39.0%
12.6%	44.0%	43.4%	42.8%	42.2%	41.6%

Fair Value for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)

Fair value (multi-method)

Valuation methods

Model inputs

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Historical multiples

Frequently asked questions

Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Key Financials

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