Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ODFL is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$116.29
Method range
$23.32 – $214.41
median $136.84
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $116.29 | -52.06% |
| Exit multiple | $157.40 | -35.11% |
| Analyst target | $214.41 | -11.61% |
| Graham number | $23.32 | -90.39% |
- Forward DCF$116.29
- Exit multiple$157.40
- Analyst target$214.41
- Graham number$23.32
Stock price
$242.57
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.49
3Y FCF CAGR
12.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$39.79
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
38.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -509.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
12.5%
Your model implies
38.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 12% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.4% | 34.2% | 33.3% | 32.3% | 31.3% | 30.2% |
| 9.4% | 36.9% | 36.1% | 35.3% | 34.4% | 33.4% |
| 10.4% | 39.4% | 38.8% | 38.0% | 37.2% | 36.4% |
| 11.4% | 41.9% | 41.3% | 40.6% | 39.9% | 39.2% |
| 12.4% | 44.2% | 43.6% | 43.0% | 42.4% | 41.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
9.31
Demanding vs growth
Net debt
$21M
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.17
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation