Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ULTA is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$15,156.92
Method range
$101.56 – $15,156.92
median $606.97
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $15,156.92 | +3,145.11% |
| Exit multiple | $531.62 | +13.82% |
| Analyst target | $682.31 | +46.08% |
| Graham number | $101.56 | -78.26% |
- Forward DCF$15,156.92
- Exit multiple$531.62
- Analyst target$682.31
- Graham number$101.56
Stock price
$467.07
FCF / share (TTM)
$4.65
3Y FCF CAGR
10.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$133.33
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
26.9%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -250.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
10.1%
Your model implies
26.9%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 10% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | 22.9% | 21.9% | 20.7% | 19.4% | 17.9% |
| 7.8% | 25.8% | 24.9% | 24.0% | 22.9% | 21.7% |
| 8.8% | 28.5% | 27.7% | 26.9% | 26.0% | 25.0% |
| 9.8% | 31.0% | 30.3% | 29.6% | 28.8% | 28.0% |
| 10.8% | 33.3% | 32.7% | 32.1% | 31.4% | 30.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$1.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.86
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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