Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ULTA is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$14,469.13
Method range
$101.56 – $14,469.13
median $587.95
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $14,469.13 | +2,892.46% |
| Exit multiple | $530.90 | +9.80% |
| Analyst target | $645.00 | +33.40% |
| Graham number | $101.56 | -79.00% |
- Forward DCF$14,469.13
- Exit multiple$530.90
- Analyst target$645.00
- Graham number$101.56
Stock price
$483.52
FCF / share (TTM)
$4.65
3Y FCF CAGR
10.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$128.46
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
28.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -276.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
10.1%
Your model implies
28.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 10% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | 24.0% | 23.0% | 21.9% | 20.6% | 19.2% |
| 8.1% | 26.9% | 26.0% | 25.1% | 24.1% | 22.9% |
| 9.1% | 29.5% | 28.8% | 28.0% | 27.1% | 26.1% |
| 10.1% | 32.0% | 31.3% | 30.6% | 29.9% | 29.0% |
| 11.1% | 34.3% | 33.7% | 33.1% | 32.4% | 31.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$1.76B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.88
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.