Union Pacific (UNP) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.33), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, UNP sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 28, 2026 (±6 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.33+0.15 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.33 | +0.15 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.06% | +0.42pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.96% | in line with sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 14 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±6 days.
| Dividend | $1.38 |
| Per-event yield | 0.52% |
| Annualized yield | 2.10% |
| Previously paid | Feb 27, 2026 ($1.38) |
| Last record date | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 31, 2026 |
UNP Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Union Pacific (UNP). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.38 | -1.00% | $265.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.36% | -3.75% | |
| Q4 | $1.38 | -0.64% | $237.29 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.44% | +1.70% | |
| Q3 | $1.38 | -0.43% | $222.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.18% | -1.67% | |
| Q2 | $1.34 | -0.71% | $222.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.30% | +1.02% | |
| Q1 | $1.34 | -0.06% | $245.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.71% | +2.28% | |
| Q4 | $1.34 | -0.57% | $233.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.01% | +0.28% | |
| Q3 | $1.34 | -0.51% | $253.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.86% | -0.30% | |
| Q2 | $1.30 | -0.47% | $229.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.43% | +0.01% | |
| Q1 | $1.30 | -0.31% | $253.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.37% | -0.39% | |
| Q4 | $1.30 | -0.24% | $232.97 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.49% | +4.80% | |
| Q3 | $1.30 | -0.28% | $223.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.42% | -5.18% | |
| Q2 | $1.30 | -0.51% | $193.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.03% | +2.36% | |
| Q1 | $1.30 | 10.26% | $194.02 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.60% | +8.30% | |
| Q4 | $1.30 | -1.77% | $212.31 | 14 | no | yes | -4.07% | -0.52% | |
| Q3 | $1.30 | -0.62% | $232.41 | 8 | no | yes | -4.13% | -1.00% | |
| Q2 | $1.30 | 0.17% | $221.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.10% | +2.34% | |
| Q1 | $1.18 | 0.07% | $242.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.01% | +9.80% | |
| Q4 | $1.18 | -0.71% | $248.35 | 7 | no | yes | -4.14% | +0.31% | |
| Q3 | $1.07 | -0.54% | $221.43 | >30 | no | no | -7.32% | -3.32% | |
| Q2 | $1.07 | -0.05% | $223.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.99% | +1.51% |
- -3.75%
- +1.70%
- -1.67%
- +1.02%
- +2.28%
- +0.28%
- -0.30%
- +0.01%
- -0.39%
- +4.80%
- -5.18%
- +2.36%
- +8.30%
- -0.52%
- -1.00%
- +2.34%
- +9.80%
- +0.31%
- -3.32%
- +1.51%
UNP Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
UNP Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with UNP's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $276.00
- After-tax dividend
- $179.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$53.09
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$126.31
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.24%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~12.0%
UNP Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical UNP ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · UNP (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.48% | |
| -3.32% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.59% | |
| -1.00% | |
| -0.52% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.52% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.