Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what UNP is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$285.87
Method range
$45.97 – $288.91
median $261.06
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $285.87 | +4.98% |
| Exit multiple | $236.25 | -13.25% |
| Analyst target | $288.91 | +6.09% |
| Graham number | $45.97 | -83.12% |
- Forward DCF$285.87
- Exit multiple$236.25
- Analyst target$288.91
- Graham number$45.97
Stock price
$272.32
FCF / share (TTM)
$2.53
3Y FCF CAGR
-0.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$31.01
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
29.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -778.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-0.1%
Your model implies
29.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -0% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | 25.5% | 24.6% | 23.5% | 22.3% | 21.0% |
| 8.4% | 28.3% | 27.5% | 26.6% | 25.6% | 24.6% |
| 9.4% | 30.9% | 30.2% | 29.4% | 28.6% | 27.7% |
| 10.4% | 33.3% | 32.7% | 32.0% | 31.3% | 30.5% |
| 11.4% | 35.6% | 35.0% | 34.4% | 33.8% | 33.1% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$30.5B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.97
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Union Pacific (UNP) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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