Analog Devices (ADI) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.16), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ADI sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 1, 2026 (±4 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.16in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.16 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.66% | -0.34pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.92% | +0.69pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 27 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±4 days.
| Dividend | $1.10 |
| Per-event yield | 0.31% |
| Annualized yield | 0.99% |
| Previously paid | Mar 3, 2026 ($1.10) |
| Last record date | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 17, 2026 |
ADI Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Analog Devices (ADI). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.10 | -3.76% | $352.41 | 27 | no | yes | -13.88% | -9.22% | |
| Q4 | $0.99 | 0.17% | $281.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.96% | +0.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.99 | -1.91% | $251.31 | 13 | no | yes | -4.99% | -0.85% | |
| Q2 | $0.99 | 0.64% | $218.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.65% | +6.91% | |
| Q1 | $0.99 | 0.84% | $228.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.35% | -8.08% | |
| Q4 | $0.92 | -1.02% | $218.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.67% | -0.44% | |
| Q3 | $0.92 | -2.62% | $234.84 | 13 | no | yes | -9.43% | -6.47% | |
| Q2 | $0.92 | -0.15% | $232.21 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.84% | +2.16% | |
| Q1 | $0.92 | -0.17% | $196.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.78% | +1.51% | |
| Q4 | $0.86 | -0.33% | $183.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.04% | +1.29% | |
| Q3 | $0.86 | 0.45% | $181.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.72% | -1.80% | |
| Q2 | $0.86 | 0.50% | $180.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.88% | +1.61% | |
| Q1 | $0.86 | -1.28% | $185.65 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.46% | +0.79% | |
| Q4 | $0.76 | -2.50% | $171.48 | 7 | no | yes | -3.77% | -1.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.76 | -1.17% | $158.67 | >30 | no | no | -7.65% | -6.10% | |
| Q2 | $0.76 | 0.91% | $164.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.38% | +1.24% | |
| Q1 | $0.76 | -1.38% | $156.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.08% | +2.27% | |
| Q4 | $0.69 | -0.46% | $180.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.01% | +1.95% | |
| Q3 | $0.69 | 0.61% | $164.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.80% | -0.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.69 | -0.42% | $163.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.75% | +1.46% |
- -9.22%
- +0.05%
- -0.85%
- +6.91%
- -8.08%
- -0.44%
- -6.47%
- +2.16%
- +1.51%
- +1.29%
- -1.80%
- +1.61%
- +0.79%
- -1.19%
- -6.10%
- +1.24%
- +2.27%
- +1.95%
- -0.42%
- +1.46%
ADI Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
ADI Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with ADI's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $220.00
- After-tax dividend
- $143.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$70.48
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$72.52
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.10%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~5.2%
ADI Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical ADI ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ADI (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.42% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.46% | |
| -6.10% | |
| -1.19% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.40% | |
| -6.47% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.45% | |
| -0.85% | |
| +0.35% | |
| -9.22% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.