Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ADI is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$118.07
Method range
$61.29 – $550.97
median $281.21
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $118.07 | -70.59% |
| Exit multiple | $550.97 | +37.27% |
| Analyst target | $444.35 | +10.70% |
| Graham number | $61.29 | -84.73% |
- Forward DCF$118.07
- Exit multiple$550.97
- Analyst target$444.35
- Graham number$61.29
Stock price
$401.39
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.51
3Y FCF CAGR
9.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$32.46
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
45.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1136.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
9.6%
Your model implies
45.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 10% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | 41.6% | 40.7% | 39.6% | 38.5% | 37.3% |
| 9.5% | 44.5% | 43.7% | 42.8% | 41.8% | 40.8% |
| 10.5% | 47.2% | 46.5% | 45.7% | 44.9% | 44.0% |
| 11.5% | 49.8% | 49.1% | 48.4% | 47.7% | 46.9% |
| 12.5% | 52.2% | 51.6% | 51.0% | 50.3% | 49.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.99
Low vs growth
Net debt
$6.2B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.18
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Analog Devices (ADI) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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