AGO dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Assured Guaranty (AGO) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.17), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AGO sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 17, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.17
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.17 | -0.14 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.36% | +0.22pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.61% | +0.80pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 14 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
Dividend
$0.38
Per-event yield
0.50%
Annualized yield
1.92%
Previously paid
May 15, 2026 ($0.38)
Last record date
May 15, 2026
Last payment date
May 29, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Assured Guaranty (AGO). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.38 | 0.25% | $76.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.22% | +1.50% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | -2.34% | $86.70 | >30 | no | no | -6.87% | -3.39% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | -0.31% | $88.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.67% | +1.61% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | -0.70% | $81.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.85% | +0.92% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | -0.08% | $86.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.02% | -2.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.34 | -0.29% | $86.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.24% | -2.85% | |
| Q4 | $0.31 | -0.52% | $92.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.98% | +0.31% | |
| Q3 | $0.31 | 0.50% | $75.88 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.09% | +4.34% | |
| Q2 | $0.31 | -0.70% | $78.37 | 14 | no | yes | -4.48% | -3.27% | |
| Q1 | $0.31 | -0.79% | $91.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.48% | +0.12% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | 0.75% | $65.25 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.21% | +2.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -1.07% | $59.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.88% | -3.17% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -0.87% | $52.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.33% | -1.17% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -0.54% | $57.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -18.95% | -9.16% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | 0.27% | $59.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.06% | +4.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | -0.83% | $55.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.21% | -2.29% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | 1.17% | $55.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.09% | +1.37% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | 0.68% | $59.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.96% | -2.69% | |
| Q4 | $0.22 | -0.67% | $53.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.17% | +0.69% | |
| Q3 | $0.22 | -1.15% | $50.27 | 6 | no | yes | -4.16% | -0.16% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 17 | 85% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with AGO's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical AGO ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.02%
Win rate (20 trades)
85%
Cumulative P&L
+0.42%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+60.73%
Best event
+0.53%
Worst event
-3.39%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AGO (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -0.16% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.34% | |
| -3.27% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.38% | |
| -3.39% | |
| +0.50% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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