Assured Guaranty (AGO) seasonality heatmap
Returns across monthly, quarterly, and yearly periods. Cell color encodes signed magnitude; the scale auto-fits each table.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.6% | +1.6% | -5.1% | +0.5% | -8.9% | +8.0% | +2.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | +5.1% | -7.7% | +1.3% | -0.4% | -3.2% | +3.0% | -2.9% | -2.4% | +3.0% | -4.8% | +12.8% | -0.7% |
| 2024 | +8.4% | +12.9% | -4.4% | -12.1% | +1.7% | -0.7% | +6.8% | -2.4% | -0.7% | +4.9% | +12.1% | -3.5% |
| 2023 | +0.5% | -0.3% | -19.1% | +7.2% | -3.4% | +7.8% | +7.1% | -1.1% | +2.9% | +3.1% | +9.3% | +10.2% |
| 2022 | +6.2% | +16.3% | +3.2% | -13.4% | +7.2% | -5.2% | +4.7% | -12.1% | -5.1% | +22.2% | +12.9% | -6.5% |
| 2021 | +13.5% | +23.7% | -3.9% | +20.3% | -5.9% | -0.3% | +0.7% | +4.7% | -6.1% | +18.7% | -11.5% | +2.5% |
| 2020 | -6.5% | -11.0% | -36.5% | +15.3% | -12.1% | -5.9% | -10.6% | -0.9% | +0.2% | +18.8% | +18.8% | +4.5% |
| 2019 | +5.9% | +3.0% | +6.8% | +7.4% | -14.0% | +3.0% | +3.8% | -2.2% | +4.5% | +5.5% | +6.2% | -1.3% |
| 2018 | +5.1% | -2.9% | +5.2% | +0.2% | -1.8% | +0.7% | +8.9% | +5.1% | +3.7% | -5.3% | +2.5% | -6.2% |
| 2017 | +3.0% | +5.7% | -9.4% | +2.8% | +2.8% | +6.8% | +7.8% | -5.2% | -11.2% | -1.7% | -1.7% | -6.7% |
| 2016 | -10.0% | +4.3% | +2.5% | +2.2% | +4.5% | -5.6% | +5.6% | +4.1% | -0.1% | +7.7% | +20.1% | +5.6% |
| 2015 | -6.1% | +9.1% | -0.5% | -1.5% | +10.5% | -16.1% | +1.9% | +3.8% | -1.1% | +9.8% | -3.2% | +0.0% |
| 2014 | -10.3% | +16.6% | +3.1% | -5.6% | +2.6% | +0.4% | -8.9% | +8.7% | -8.2% | +4.1% | +11.2% | +1.7% |
| 2013 | +27.4% | +3.5% | +10.4% | +0.1% | +10.1% | -2.5% | -1.9% | -7.6% | -5.7% | +9.3% | +15.1% | +0.4% |
| 2012 | +18.0% | +8.9% | -1.6% | -14.2% | -15.2% | +18.1% | -15.0% | +11.0% | +3.2% | +2.0% | +1.2% | +2.0% |
| 2011 | -18.3% | +0.7% | +2.6% | +14.1% | +0.4% | -4.2% | -13.2% | -4.3% | -18.5% | +15.9% | -23.6% | +35.5% |
| 2010 | +4.1% | -6.9% | +4.4% | -1.9% | -21.8% | -21.0% | +18.3% | -1.2% | +10.6% | +11.3% | -10.4% | +4.1% |
| 2009 | -33.1% | -41.7% | +53.2% | +42.7% | +36.2% | -5.6% | +12.8% | +42.8% | -2.4% | -14.6% | +37.0% | -4.0% |
| 2008 | -10.8% | +8.6% | -7.4% | +6.5% | -8.5% | -22.1% | -36.3% | +42.5% | +0.0% | -30.9% | +0.5% | +1.5% |
| 2007 | -1.4% | +8.0% | -3.5% | +3.2% | +5.0% | -0.0% | -17.7% | +7.3% | +4.2% | -15.1% | -2.0% | +17.6% |
| 2006 | +0.3% | +3.8% | -5.3% | -0.6% | +0.3% | +1.8% | +0.5% | +5.1% | -3.1% | -2.9% | +2.9% | +2.9% |
| 2005 | -10.5% | +7.7% | -5.2% | +6.2% | +8.0% | +13.7% | +2.1% | -5.9% | +6.8% | -6.5% | +17.8% | -3.5% |
| 2004 | — | — | — | — | -3.9% | -0.3% | +1.7% | -6.9% | +3.9% | -1.4% | +12.4% | +6.8% |
| Avg | -0.7% | +2.9% | -0.4% | +3.6% | -0.4% | -1.1% | -1.1% | +3.8% | -0.9% | +2.3% | +6.4% | +2.9% |
| Median | +0.4% | +4.0% | -1.0% | +1.4% | +0.3% | -0.3% | +1.8% | -1.0% | -0.0% | +3.6% | +7.8% | +1.6% |
| Last 5Y Avg | +2.9% | +4.6% | -4.8% | -3.6% | -1.3% | +2.6% | +3.3% | -2.7% | -1.2% | +8.8% | +7.1% | +0.4% |
| Std Dev (σ) | 12.8% | 12.9% | 15.5% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 13.9% | 6.5% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 9.3% |
| Consistency (μ/σ) | -0.05 | 0.22 | -0.03 | 0.29 | -0.04 | -0.12 | -0.09 | 0.27 | -0.14 | 0.18 | 0.49 | 0.31 |
| Win Rate (%) | 55% | 73% | 45% | 64% | 52% | 43% | 64% | 45% | 45% | 59% | 73% | 59% |
| Winning / Losing Months | ▲12▼10 | ▲16▼6 | ▲10▼12 | ▲14▼8 | ▲12▼11 | ▲10▼13 | ▲14▼8 | ▲10▼12 | ▲10▼12 | ▲13▼9 | ▲16▼6 | ▲13▼9 |
| Longest Win / Loss Streak | ▲5▼3 | ▲7▼2 | ▲3▼4 | ▲6▼2 | ▲5▼4 | ▲3▼5 | ▲5▼4 | ▲4▼4 | ▲3▼5 | ▲7▼6 | ▲4▼2 | ▲5▼3 |
| Best | +27.4%in January 2013 | +23.7%in February 2021 | +53.2%in March 2009 | +42.7%in April 2009 | +36.2%in May 2009 | +18.1%in June 2012 | +18.3%in July 2010 | +42.8%in August 2009 | +10.6%in September 2010 | +22.2%in October 2022 | +37.0%in November 2009 | +35.5%in December 2011 |
| Worst | -33.1%in January 2009 | -41.7%in February 2009 | -36.5%in March 2020 | -14.2%in April 2012 | -21.8%in May 2010 | -22.1%in June 2008 | -36.3%in July 2008 | -12.1%in August 2022 | -18.5%in September 2011 | -30.9%in October 2008 | -23.6%in November 2011 | -6.7%in December 2017 |
−41.7%+53.2%
2026
Jan-5.6%
Feb+1.6%
Mar-5.1%
Apr+0.5%
May-8.9%
Jun+8.0%
Jul+2.9%
Aug—
Sep—
Oct—
Nov—
Dec—
2025
Jan+5.1%
Feb-7.7%
Mar+1.3%
Apr-0.4%
May-3.2%
Jun+3.0%
Jul-2.9%
Aug-2.4%
Sep+3.0%
Oct-4.8%
Nov+12.8%
Dec-0.7%
2024
Jan+8.4%
Feb+12.9%
Mar-4.4%
Apr-12.1%
May+1.7%
Jun-0.7%
Jul+6.8%
Aug-2.4%
Sep-0.7%
Oct+4.9%
Nov+12.1%
Dec-3.5%
2023
Jan+0.5%
Feb-0.3%
Mar-19.1%
Apr+7.2%
May-3.4%
Jun+7.8%
Jul+7.1%
Aug-1.1%
Sep+2.9%
Oct+3.1%
Nov+9.3%
Dec+10.2%
2022
Jan+6.2%
Feb+16.3%
Mar+3.2%
Apr-13.4%
May+7.2%
Jun-5.2%
Jul+4.7%
Aug-12.1%
Sep-5.1%
Oct+22.2%
Nov+12.9%
Dec-6.5%
2021
Jan+13.5%
Feb+23.7%
Mar-3.9%
Apr+20.3%
May-5.9%
Jun-0.3%
Jul+0.7%
Aug+4.7%
Sep-6.1%
Oct+18.7%
Nov-11.5%
Dec+2.5%
2020
Jan-6.5%
Feb-11.0%
Mar-36.5%
Apr+15.3%
May-12.1%
Jun-5.9%
Jul-10.6%
Aug-0.9%
Sep+0.2%
Oct+18.8%
Nov+18.8%
Dec+4.5%
2019
Jan+5.9%
Feb+3.0%
Mar+6.8%
Apr+7.4%
May-14.0%
Jun+3.0%
Jul+3.8%
Aug-2.2%
Sep+4.5%
Oct+5.5%
Nov+6.2%
Dec-1.3%
2018
Jan+5.1%
Feb-2.9%
Mar+5.2%
Apr+0.2%
May-1.8%
Jun+0.7%
Jul+8.9%
Aug+5.1%
Sep+3.7%
Oct-5.3%
Nov+2.5%
Dec-6.2%
2017
Jan+3.0%
Feb+5.7%
Mar-9.4%
Apr+2.8%
May+2.8%
Jun+6.8%
Jul+7.8%
Aug-5.2%
Sep-11.2%
Oct-1.7%
Nov-1.7%
Dec-6.7%
2016
Jan-10.0%
Feb+4.3%
Mar+2.5%
Apr+2.2%
May+4.5%
Jun-5.6%
Jul+5.6%
Aug+4.1%
Sep-0.1%
Oct+7.7%
Nov+20.1%
Dec+5.6%
2015
Jan-6.1%
Feb+9.1%
Mar-0.5%
Apr-1.5%
May+10.5%
Jun-16.1%
Jul+1.9%
Aug+3.8%
Sep-1.1%
Oct+9.8%
Nov-3.2%
Dec+0.0%
2014
Jan-10.3%
Feb+16.6%
Mar+3.1%
Apr-5.6%
May+2.6%
Jun+0.4%
Jul-8.9%
Aug+8.7%
Sep-8.2%
Oct+4.1%
Nov+11.2%
Dec+1.7%
2013
Jan+27.4%
Feb+3.5%
Mar+10.4%
Apr+0.1%
May+10.1%
Jun-2.5%
Jul-1.9%
Aug-7.6%
Sep-5.7%
Oct+9.3%
Nov+15.1%
Dec+0.4%
2012
Jan+18.0%
Feb+8.9%
Mar-1.6%
Apr-14.2%
May-15.2%
Jun+18.1%
Jul-15.0%
Aug+11.0%
Sep+3.2%
Oct+2.0%
Nov+1.2%
Dec+2.0%
2011
Jan-18.3%
Feb+0.7%
Mar+2.6%
Apr+14.1%
May+0.4%
Jun-4.2%
Jul-13.2%
Aug-4.3%
Sep-18.5%
Oct+15.9%
Nov-23.6%
Dec+35.5%
2010
Jan+4.1%
Feb-6.9%
Mar+4.4%
Apr-1.9%
May-21.8%
Jun-21.0%
Jul+18.3%
Aug-1.2%
Sep+10.6%
Oct+11.3%
Nov-10.4%
Dec+4.1%
2009
Jan-33.1%
Feb-41.7%
Mar+53.2%
Apr+42.7%
May+36.2%
Jun-5.6%
Jul+12.8%
Aug+42.8%
Sep-2.4%
Oct-14.6%
Nov+37.0%
Dec-4.0%
2008
Jan-10.8%
Feb+8.6%
Mar-7.4%
Apr+6.5%
May-8.5%
Jun-22.1%
Jul-36.3%
Aug+42.5%
Sep+0.0%
Oct-30.9%
Nov+0.5%
Dec+1.5%
2007
Jan-1.4%
Feb+8.0%
Mar-3.5%
Apr+3.2%
May+5.0%
Jun-0.0%
Jul-17.7%
Aug+7.3%
Sep+4.2%
Oct-15.1%
Nov-2.0%
Dec+17.6%
2006
Jan+0.3%
Feb+3.8%
Mar-5.3%
Apr-0.6%
May+0.3%
Jun+1.8%
Jul+0.5%
Aug+5.1%
Sep-3.1%
Oct-2.9%
Nov+2.9%
Dec+2.9%
2005
Jan-10.5%
Feb+7.7%
Mar-5.2%
Apr+6.2%
May+8.0%
Jun+13.7%
Jul+2.1%
Aug-5.9%
Sep+6.8%
Oct-6.5%
Nov+17.8%
Dec-3.5%
2004
Jan—
Feb—
Mar—
Apr—
May-3.9%
Jun-0.3%
Jul+1.7%
Aug-6.9%
Sep+3.9%
Oct-1.4%
Nov+12.4%
Dec+6.8%
Avg
Jan-0.7%
Feb+2.9%
Mar-0.4%
Apr+3.6%
May-0.4%
Jun-1.1%
Jul-1.1%
Aug+3.8%
Sep-0.9%
Oct+2.3%
Nov+6.4%
Dec+2.9%
Median
Jan+0.4%
Feb+4.0%
Mar-1.0%
Apr+1.4%
May+0.3%
Jun-0.3%
Jul+1.8%
Aug-1.0%
Sep-0.0%
Oct+3.6%
Nov+7.8%
Dec+1.6%
Last 5Y Avg
Jan+2.9%
Feb+4.6%
Mar-4.8%
Apr-3.6%
May-1.3%
Jun+2.6%
Jul+3.3%
Aug-2.7%
Sep-1.2%
Oct+8.8%
Nov+7.1%
Dec+0.4%
Std Dev (σ)
Jan12.8%
Feb12.9%
Mar15.5%
Apr12.3%
May11.6%
Jun9.6%
Jul12.0%
Aug13.9%
Sep6.5%
Oct12.5%
Nov12.9%
Dec9.3%
Consistency (μ/σ)
Jan-0.05
Feb0.22
Mar-0.03
Apr0.29
May-0.04
Jun-0.12
Jul-0.09
Aug0.27
Sep-0.14
Oct0.18
Nov0.49
Dec0.31
Win Rate (%)
Jan55%
Feb73%
Mar45%
Apr64%
May52%
Jun43%
Jul64%
Aug45%
Sep45%
Oct59%
Nov73%
Dec59%
Winning / Losing Months
Jan▲12▼10
Feb▲16▼6
Mar▲10▼12
Apr▲14▼8
May▲12▼11
Jun▲10▼13
Jul▲14▼8
Aug▲10▼12
Sep▲10▼12
Oct▲13▼9
Nov▲16▼6
Dec▲13▼9
Longest Win / Loss Streak
Jan▲5▼3
Feb▲7▼2
Mar▲3▼4
Apr▲6▼2
May▲5▼4
Jun▲3▼5
Jul▲5▼4
Aug▲4▼4
Sep▲3▼5
Oct▲7▼6
Nov▲4▼2
Dec▲5▼3
Best
Jan+27.4%2013
Feb+23.7%2021
Mar+53.2%2009
Apr+42.7%2009
May+36.2%2009
Jun+18.1%2012
Jul+18.3%2010
Aug+42.8%2009
Sep+10.6%2010
Oct+22.2%2022
Nov+37.0%2009
Dec+35.5%2011
Worst
Jan-33.1%2009
Feb-41.7%2009
Mar-36.5%2020
Apr-14.2%2012
May-21.8%2010
Jun-22.1%2008
Jul-36.3%2008
Aug-12.1%2022
Sep-18.5%2011
Oct-30.9%2008
Nov-23.6%2011
Dec-6.7%2017
−41.7%+53.2%
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