Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AGO is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$541.35
Method range
$63.20 – $541.35
median $76.48
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $541.35 | +540.95% |
| Exit multiple | $63.20 | -25.17% |
| Analyst target | $80.00 | -5.28% |
| Graham number | $72.96 | -13.61% |
- Forward DCF$541.35
- Exit multiple$63.20
- Analyst target$80.00
- Graham number$72.96
Stock price
$84.46
FCF / share (TTM)
$4.19
3Y FCF CAGR
-17.7%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$17.03
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
4.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -395.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-17.7%
Your model implies
4.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -18% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | -0.7% | -1.8% | -3.2% |
| 7.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| 8.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% |
| 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% |
| 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$1.32B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.74
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Assured Guaranty (AGO) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.