Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AGO is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$546.95
Method range
$63.20 – $546.95
median $76.48
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $546.95 | +623.77% |
| Exit multiple | $63.20 | -16.37% |
| Analyst target | $80.00 | +5.86% |
| Graham number | $72.96 | -3.45% |
- Forward DCF$546.95
- Exit multiple$63.20
- Analyst target$80.00
- Graham number$72.96
Stock price
$75.57
FCF / share (TTM)
$4.19
3Y FCF CAGR
-17.7%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$17.11
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
2.9%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -341.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-17.7%
Your model implies
2.9%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -18% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | -0.4% | -1.2% | -2.2% | -3.3% | -4.6% |
| 7.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | -0.4% | -1.4% |
| 8.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| 9.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% |
| 10.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$1.3B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.76
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Assured Guaranty (AGO) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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