Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what APP is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$7,817.24
Method range
$23.73 – $7,817.24
median $809.23
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $7,817.24 | +1,795.18% |
| Exit multiple | $968.76 | +134.86% |
| Analyst target | $649.69 | +57.51% |
| Graham number | $23.73 | -94.25% |
- Forward DCF$7,817.24
- Exit multiple$968.76
- Analyst target$649.69
- Graham number$23.73
Stock price
$412.48
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.83
3Y FCF CAGR
82.0%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$4,100.42
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
42.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 89.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
82.0%
Your model implies
42.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 82% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 7.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.0% | 39.1% | 38.6% | 38.1% | 37.5% | 36.9% |
| 14.0% | 41.2% | 40.7% | 40.2% | 39.7% | 39.2% |
| 15.0% | 43.2% | 42.8% | 42.3% | 41.9% | 41.4% |
| 15.0% | 43.2% | 42.8% | 42.3% | 41.9% | 41.4% |
| 15.0% | 43.2% | 42.8% | 42.3% | 41.9% | 41.4% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
2.93
Demanding vs growth
Net debt
$1.06B
Total debt − cash
Beta
2.48
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
AppLovin (APP) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.