Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what APP is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$7,817.24
Method range
$23.73 – $7,817.24
median $808.78
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $7,817.24 | +1,302.95% |
| Exit multiple | $965.36 | +73.25% |
| Analyst target | $652.20 | +17.05% |
| Graham number | $23.73 | -95.74% |
- Forward DCF$7,817.24
- Exit multiple$965.36
- Analyst target$652.20
- Graham number$23.73
Stock price
$557.20
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.83
3Y FCF CAGR
82.0%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$4100.42
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
47.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 86.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
82.0%
Your model implies
47.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 82% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 8.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.0% | 43.8% | 43.3% | 42.7% | 42.1% | 41.5% |
| 14.0% | 46.0% | 45.5% | 45.0% | 44.4% | 43.9% |
| 15.0% | 48.1% | 47.6% | 47.1% | 46.6% | 46.1% |
| 15.0% | 48.1% | 47.6% | 47.1% | 46.6% | 46.1% |
| 15.0% | 48.1% | 47.6% | 47.1% | 46.6% | 46.1% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
2.93
Demanding vs growth
Net debt
$1.1B
Total debt − cash
Beta
2.46
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
AppLovin (APP) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation