Arrow Financial (AROW) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.36), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AROW sits noticeably below the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 11, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.36+0.05 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.36 | +0.05 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.44% | +0.13pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.06% | +0.32pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 8 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.30 |
| Per-event yield | 0.85% |
| Annualized yield | 3.29% |
| Previously paid | Feb 11, 2026 ($0.30) |
| Last record date | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Feb 25, 2026 |
AROW Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Arrow Financial (AROW). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.11% | $35.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.68% | -0.96% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | -1.10% | $30.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.65% | -3.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | -0.07% | $27.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.64% | +2.29% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -0.82% | $26.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.79% | +0.45% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -0.33% | $26.89 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.20% | +1.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -0.27% | $29.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.78% | -0.72% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | -0.11% | $27.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.03% | +6.08% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | -1.03% | $24.18 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.61% | +4.38% | |
| Q1 | $0.27 | -0.62% | $24.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.33% | +2.23% | |
| Q4 | $0.27 | -0.36% | $24.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.08% | +9.46% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -1.13% | $17.68 | 8 | no | yes | -6.22% | -1.48% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -0.17% | $17.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.33% | +20.88% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -1.16% | $29.19 | >30 | no | no | -15.28% | -5.52% | |
| Q4 | $0.27 | -0.12% | $34.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.81% | -2.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | -1.21% | $30.55 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.54% | +0.85% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | -0.73% | $31.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.01% | -0.51% | |
| Q1 | $0.27 | -0.03% | $32.99 | 4 | yes | yes | -6.55% | -2.06% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | 1.88% | $32.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.83% | +2.80% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -0.90% | $34.39 | >30 | no | no | -7.56% | -5.90% | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | 0.03% | $33.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.74% | -0.38% |
- -0.96%
- -3.91%
- +2.29%
- +0.45%
- +1.82%
- -0.72%
- +6.08%
- +4.38%
- +2.23%
- +9.46%
- -1.48%
- +20.88%
- -5.52%
- -2.05%
- +0.85%
- -0.51%
- -2.06%
- +2.80%
- -5.90%
- -0.38%
AROW Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
AROW Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with AROW's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $60.00
- After-tax dividend
- $39.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$7.08
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$31.92
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.45%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~22.7%
AROW Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical AROW ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AROW (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.77% | |
| -5.90% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +0.79% | |
| -5.52% | |
| +1.57% | |
| -1.48% | |
| +1.08% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +1.04% | |
| +1.05% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.85% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.