AROW dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 90% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Arrow Financial (AROW) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.35), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AROW sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 11, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.30.
Touch rate (30d)
90%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.35
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.35 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.46% | +0.12pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.06% | +0.35pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 8 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$0.30
Per-event yield
0.82%
Annualized yield
2.95%
Previously paid
May 12, 2026 ($0.30)
Last record date
May 12, 2026
Last payment date
May 26, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Arrow Financial (AROW). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.30 | -0.80% | $36.39 | 7 | no | yes | -3.41% | -0.49% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.11% | $35.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.68% | -0.96% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | -1.10% | $30.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.65% | -3.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | -0.07% | $27.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.64% | +2.29% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -0.82% | $26.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.79% | +0.45% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -0.33% | $26.89 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.20% | +1.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -0.27% | $29.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.78% | -0.72% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | -0.11% | $27.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.03% | +6.08% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | -1.03% | $24.18 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.61% | +4.38% | |
| Q1 | $0.27 | -0.62% | $24.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.33% | +2.23% | |
| Q4 | $0.27 | -0.36% | $24.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.09% | +9.46% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -1.15% | $18.21 | 8 | no | yes | -6.21% | -1.55% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -0.16% | $18.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.34% | +20.82% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -1.16% | $30.07 | >30 | no | no | -15.30% | -5.56% | |
| Q4 | $0.27 | -0.11% | $35.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.81% | -2.08% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | -1.24% | $31.47 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.56% | +0.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | -0.74% | $32.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.99% | -0.56% | |
| Q1 | $0.27 | -0.03% | $33.98 | 4 | yes | yes | -6.53% | -2.09% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | 1.88% | $33.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.87% | +2.78% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -0.90% | $36.49 | >30 | no | no | -10.25% | -5.95% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
Pre-filled with AROW's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical AROW ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.11%
Win rate (20 trades)
80%
Cumulative P&L
+2.19%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+13.44%
Best event
+1.52%
Worst event
-5.95%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AROW (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -5.95% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.77% | |
| -5.56% | |
| +1.52% | |
| -1.55% | |
| +1.08% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +1.04% | |
| +1.05% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.85% | |
| -0.49% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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